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Brazil Plans To Be 5th-Largest Crude Exporter By 2030

Brazil’s expected oil output surge this decade will make it the world’s fifth-largest crude exporter in 2030, Brazilian Mines and Energy Minister Bento Albuquerque said in an interview with The Rio Times on Thursday.

“In 2030, when we reach a production of 5.3 million barrels of oil per day, Brazil will become the fifth largest exporter in the world,” Albuquerque said, adding that Brazil’s crude and liquids production is set to jump from 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) now.

Currently, Brazil is out of the top ten of the world’s largest crude oil exporters, a ranking where Saudi Arabia is firmly in the lead.

Brazil’s prolific pre-salt offshore oilfields have been ramping up production in recent years and are the main driver of rising oil production. Moreover, Brazil is one of the countries not part of the OPEC+ alliance that are expected to continue to contribute to non-OPEC supply this year and in the coming years, according to estimates from OPEC itself.

The main drivers for 2021 supply growth are anticipated to be Canada, Brazil, China, and Norway, OPEC said in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) in June.

Brazil’s crude oil production in April 2021 rose by 128,000 bpd from March to average 2.97 million bpd. Based on preliminary production data, and fewer outages due to lower maintenance and other unplanned outages, May crude production indicates further month over month growth of more than 50,000 bpd, OPEC has estimated.

In 2020, Brazilian crude oil production rose by 5.7 percent to average 2.9 million bpd, according to data from industry regulator ANP published last month. The pre-salt basin with 2 million bpd output led the rise in supply. Thanks to the higher crude oil production, Brazil’s exports hit a record level of 1.4 million bpd in 2020, up by 16.9 percent year over year, ANP said.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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  • George Doolittle on July 11 2021 said:
    "the real plan being to hyperinflate the" ahem "Brazilian Real" ahem instead of course.

    Meanwhile no longer just *MERELY* all of Mexico now controlled by US natural gas Companies but now the entire World run by a collective of US energy concerns relevant but not limited to coal, oil, natural gas, battery, solar, wind, hydropower, geothermal...and of course free trade with like minded Nations such as ...

    hmmmmm...
    that would be Canada as about it?
  • Mamdouh Salameh on July 10 2021 said:
    In 2012 I wrote a research paper titled: ”Brazil’s Pre-Salt Oil Potential: The Hype and the Reality” which was published by the USAEE Working Paper Series in 18 July 2012 under number 2109947.

    At the time Brazil was claiming that its pre-salt oil discoveries would vault it to seventh place in the world ranking in terms of proven reserves with 50 billion barrels (bb) of proven reserves. I said then in my paper that this isn’t going to happen because of the cost and complexity of extracting pre-salt oil. I was proven right. Brazil with proven reserves of only 12.7 bb ranks 15th in the world.

    Brazilian authorities also claimed then that Brazil will become one of the top exporters in the world. I said in my paper that Brazil will at best become self-sufficient in oil with tiny bit to export. I was proven right again. Today Brazil with a production of 2.877 million barrels a day (mbd) and a consumption of 2.398 mbd could only manage to export some 470,000 barrels a day (b/d).

    Now Brazilian Mines & Energy Minister is claiming that Brazil’s oil output will surge to 5.3 mbd from the current level of 2.877 mbd by 2030 making the country the world’s fifth-largest crude exporter in 2030.

    How could Brazil’s export 1.4 mbd in 2020 when it was producing 2.877 mbd and consuming 2.398 mbd leaving only 470,000 b/d for exports?

    Brazil was hyping about the potential of pre-salt oil in 2012 when I wrote my paper and it continues to hype now. This hype doesn’t impress anybody least of all OPEC. Even the slightest economic growth could wipe out the tiny volume of oil that Brazil is currently exporting.

    Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
    International Oil Economist
    Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London

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