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Slower U.S. shale growth and persistent underproduction from several OPEC+ producers are set to tighten the oil market further in 2024, Barclays said on Wednesday, hiking its Brent price forecast for next year by $8 to $97 a barrel.
“Slowing non-OPEC+ supply growth, driven primarily by the US, and persistent underproduction from several OPEC+ producers due to structural constraints bolsters our core thesis behind a constructive view on oil prices,” the bank said in a note carried by Reuters.
But Barclays revised down its Brent forecast for this year to $84 per barrel, down by $3 from its previous forecast. The bank’s fourth-quarter estimate of $92 a barrel Brent remained unchanged.
Barclays expects a deficit of 670,000 barrels per day (bpd) on the oil market this year, and a 250,000 bpd deficit next year.
The bank sees a tussle between major oil producers and consumers unfolding.
“A tussle between key producers and consumers is visible in the G-7 efforts to cap Russian export prices and OPEC+ announcing significant voluntary adjustments to output,” Barclays said in the note.
In recent weeks, market fundamentals have turned more bullish, with oil demand estimated to have hit a record in June and possibly heading to a fresh record this month, per forecasts by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ are staying the course with the cuts, with the Kingdom extending its unilateral cut of 1 million bpd into September and signaling it could extend it further, or extend and deepen it.
Global oil demand hit a record 103 million bpd in June, and August could see yet another peak, the IEA said in its closely-watched Oil Market Report for August. World oil demand is set to grow by 2.2 million bpd this year, with China accounting for more than 70% of growth, the agency noted.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
Charles is a writer for Oilprice.com