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Washington Turmoil Roils Global Oil Markets

Washington Turmoil Roils Global Oil Markets

Turmoil in the United States…

Gregory R. Copley

Gregory R. Copley

Historian, author, and strategic analyst — and onetime industrialist — Gregory R. Copley, who was born in 1946, has for almost five decades worked at…

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What Would A U.S. Civil War Look Like?

Trump election

Yes, there is a civil war looming in the United States.

But it will not look like the orderly pattern of descent which characterized the conflict of 1861-65. It will appear more like the Yugoslavia break-up, or the Russian and Chinese civil wars of the 20th Century.

It will appear as an evolving chaos.

And the next US civil war, though it yet may be arrested to a degree by the formal hand of centralized gov-ernment, will destabilize many other nation-states, including the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

It may, in other words, be short-lived simply because the uprising will probably not be based upon the deci-sions of constituent states (which, in the US Civil War, created a break-away confederacy), acting within their own perception of a legal process. It is more probable that the 21st Century event would contage as a gradual breakdown of law and order.

The outcome, to a degree dependent on how rapidly order is restored, would likely be the end, or con-straint, of the present view of democracy in the US. It would see a massive dislocation of the economy and currency. It would, then, become a global-level issue.

Humans mock what they see as an impulse toward species suicide among the beautiful lemming clan of Lemmus lemmus.1 In fact, these tiny creatures have a societal survival pattern which seems more con-sistent than that of their human detractors. The pattern of human history shows that civilizations usually end through internal illness rather than at the hand of external powers.

It is significant that the gathering crisis in the United States was not precipitated by the November 7, 2016, election of Pres. Donald Trump, and neither was the growing polarization of the United Kingdom’s society caused by the Brexit vote of 2016. Related: Oil Prices Climb As Oil Rig Count Drops

In both instances, the election of Mr Trump and the decision by UK voters for Britain to exit the European Union were late reactions — perhaps too late — by the regional populations of both countries to what they perceived as the destruction of their nation-states by “urban super-oligarchies”.

The last-ditch reactions by those who voted in the US for Donald Trump and those who voted in the UK for Brexit were against an urban-based globalism which has been building for some seven decades, with the deliberate or accidental intent of destroying nations and nationalism. It is now crystallizing into this: urban globalism sees nations and nationalism as the enemy, and vice-versa.

The battle lines have been drawn.

The urban globalists — the conscious and unconscious — have thrown their resources behind efforts to avert a return to nationalism, particularly in the US and UK, but also in Europe, Canada, Australia, and the like.

Urban globalists control most of the means of communications [is this new “means of production”; the 21st Century marxian dialectic?] and therefore control “information” and the perception of events.

“Nationalists”, then, are operating instinctively, and in darkness.

There is little doubt that the US, despite the evidence that economic recovery is at hand, could spiral into a self-destructive descent of dysfunction, dystopia, and anomie. The path toward a “second civil war” has significant parallels with the causes of the first US Civil War (1861-65). Both events — the 19th Century event and a possible 21st Century one — saw the polarization of a fundamentally urban, abstract society against a fundamentally regional, traditional society.

In some respects, it is a conflict between people with long memories (even if those memories are flawed and selective) and people to whom memories and history are irrelevant. Equally, it is a conflict between identity and materialism, with the abstract social groups (the urban populations) the most preoccupied with short-term material gain. Related: Will Oil Demand Growth Be Enough To Tackle Inventories?

I have covered the US for 50 years, and my earliest view of it was, a half century ago, that its populations would inevitably polarize into protective islands of self-interest, surrounded by seas of unthinking locusts. What is ironic is that the present islands of wealth and power — the cities — have come to represent short-term materialism, as cities have throughout history.

But what is interesting is that, despite the global attention on the political/geographic polarizations occur-ring in the US and other parts of the Western world, there has been a reversion in other parts of the world to a sense of Westphalian or pre-Westphalian nationalism. The fact that “the West” may have ring-fenced Iran, Russia, and so on, with sanctions and other forms of isolation may well be what ensures their endur-ing status.

They have avoided the contagion of globalism.


Russia, indeed, recovered from the Soviet form of globalism in 1991.

An urban globalist “victory” over Trump and Brexit would trigger that meltdown toward a form of civil so-cietal collapse — civil war in some form or other — as the regions disavow the diktats of the cities. That would, in turn, bring about the global economic uncertainty which could impact the PRC and then the en-tire world.

But such a conflict — physical or political — could, equally, lead to a victory for nationalism over global-ism, and to the protection of currencies and values. We have seen this cycle repeated for millennia.

It is the eternal battle.

By Gregory R. Copley via GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs

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  • John on August 19 2017 said:
    Would love to bring high order violence to Antifa! Where do I sign up!
  • Max Power on August 20 2017 said:
    Sorry, but I don't buy this thesis. The author paints the rural vs. urban divide in too broad of strokes. The fact is that the rural population is not all conservative and the city population is not all liberal. The distribution of liberals and conservatives is too diffuse to form distinct geographical opposing camps that would fight each other. There's also been a lot of internal movement with the US since its founding whereby there is much less regional identity then there used to be. Back during the civil war there were Southerners and Yankees and they had a much more distinct culture, whereby today there is less of that type of cultural differentiation and way more of a blend of people from different backgrounds mixed-in in the different regions.

    This said, it's not to say that there won't be major semi-existential crises rising up in America. There will be and it will most likely arise from the inability of government to provide the social benefits it has promised, specifically in the realm of healthcare, with unfunded liabilities now in the many tens of trillions. From an international comparison perspective, this is a uniquely American problem due to the insane cost of healthcare in the USA compared to all other advanced countries who have long ago come up with much more efficient health-delivery systems (while BTW, maintaining health outcomes which match or in many cases rival those of the American system, if you could even call it a "system" as it seriously lacks the sort of integration found elsewhere).
  • Thegreatgeneo on August 20 2017 said:
    Interesting , but I disagree. I'm of the opinion the U.S. Is still in a recession & may be facing a systemic debt collapse in the next 24 months. Next, the U.S. Population is not politically divide in such a way where any one state or city can be plastered with a certain label of any one belief system. I do agree that globalization has serious consequences. Globalization of our U.S. economy has turned out to be a killer of increased wages & thus tax recites.
  • DonG on August 22 2017 said:
    You say "cities", but I think you mean elites and statists. As part of the great sort, elites as statists are clustering in cities (NYC, DC, LA, SF). The elites and statists are now throwing in with the communists, which are the ultimate global statists.
  • Scott on August 22 2017 said:
    The article makes many false assumptions and misrepresentations. For example, lemmings don't commit mass suicides. That was a myth largely created and perpetuated by Disney. It makes the whole article suspect. The lemming issue is very well documented. As a historian he ought to know this and not knowing such a well-documented fact throws the entire article into question, not to mention that the US is still not doing well economically. I don't know where he lives but he isn't seeing what I'm saying in this country. If indeed a civil war does come you can blame Soros and the Clintons. It will be fabricated, not naturally occurring.
  • Steve Gray on August 22 2017 said:
    Article is a brilliant, yet somewhat incomplete, macro view of what has been happening. To the earlier comment makes - don't get distracted by the specifics here, IE - City VS Country, what's he's really talking about is, as a later comment stated, global vs national world views. There's a deep theology involved in this discussion. A truly "Christian" world view might be considered (as are most religions) 'global' in perspective because of their mission focus. However I would venture to say that most Christians in the US, and the majority of the 'anti-global' movement in the US are probably Christian, believe this doesn't apply to their government, and only to their religion.Very interesting article and I think very close to a major 'truth' in world, national, and even personal politics. Even more interesting is "what drives this interest in globalism"? Is it truly just about control for power? Or is it driven by an altruistic sense of brotherhood? I doubt the latter, no matter who you are talking about. Basically men, and especially men with power, seem to be evil. Sorry, but there it is. If you need more proof, read up on history, especially the brilliant series by Will Durant - old enough to not be revisionist, new enough to be readable.
  • TonyR on August 22 2017 said:
    People have been praying for a Civil War in America for the past 10 years before Obama was elected. People were stocking up thinking either Bush or Obama was going to lead us to doom. People in America fantasize through Youtube of how the economy crash, civil unrest and war would play out in America but only shared their illusion. The truth is, we will never see a Civil War in America especially with the Millennial growing up. What we will witness instead is more nonsense.

    In the past 10 years, Americans grew outrage over Bush's and Obama's policies. They threaten the status quo with ideas of civil unrest only to fail the implementation process. We just went through a generation of Americans who's idea of protest is to come between Friday after 5pm to Sunday before 5pm, AKA Weekend Warriors. The sad part of the protest was it was not a protest but a social gathering as if you were in a festival but with loud chanting. We seen protest where it was brought to you by Budweiser or Starbucks. We witness how the protests in the past 10 years had food venues, dance, music, Johnny on the spot. It is as if these protest were extended Woodstock events.

    We now fast forward to 2017 where we now have a generation of protesters who would not protest unless being paid by the establishment. They may seem more violent and aggressive then the ones in the past 10 years but they are being paid for by the elites. What this will do to our future generations of Americans is not voice their opinion or concerns unless they are being compensated by their desired elites. They do not realize their liberty is at stake and are willing to follow Madonna or Ashley Judd who will make their voices a mockery talking about bloody tampons. What we will see are weaker and senseless protests like they do to those African countries where they burn tires on the street which resolves nothing. In the mean time, pro Trump protesters are out defending their right but continue to remain that calm quiet type thinking they will receive more respect in the eyes of the savages call ANTIFA. . Yet, the establishment are laughing at the population for following their command and seeing a fight among each other. What we will see in the future of protest are Mickey Mouse style fights followed by more burning cars, trash cans, broken windows and burning tires. What will this do for the protesters, nothing.
    In the land where we are used to seeing protest going for a few hours only to be cleared up by the time their favorite show is on, we will not see a full fledged Civil war like seen in the Eastern European countries nor will we see an revolution anytime soon.
  • WLB42 on August 22 2017 said:
    This article is a typical article that the NWO Globalists, demonic dark Cabal, greedy rich ruling Elite would write or like to see a civil war, because they endorse killing people in support of their Agenda 21 de-population concept.

    They keep ALL of us "We the People" at each others throat, using our differences of political party, creed(religious & non-religious beliefs), color, ethnic differences, conservative vs liberal values, etc. & so on, creating hate groups (by design) in each and every area of differences.

    But, I say enough is enough. This Civil War if there ever is a need for one, should be a war against the "controllers & manipulators" that are trying to get ALL of us "We the People" to destroy one another. THEY are the real "domestic" enemies who control our fake news MSM, Private Banking Systems wordwide, the upper levels of our world Corporations, Political Parties, and World Governments.

    Not all of these people, of course, at the highest levels are demonic Luciferians, but many are. And for the most part WE know who they are because they engage in world wide criminal activities of illegal drugs, human trafficking, pedophilia, prostitution and other crimes against humanity, to include starting wars and keeping wars going worldwide to serve their own personal needs of protecting their greedy financial & criminal interests, and then tax the working people to pay for their "war mongering" follies.

    So, I say this; if there is going to be a war.....ALL of us should band together as ONE..,WE THE PEOPLE" and declare a war against the evil & demonic "controllers & manipulators" we call the NWO Globalists, and end the killing, murders, violence and YES....stop ALL wars worldwide that we the people fight and die for. STOP THE WARS AND STOP THE KILLING NOW.
  • The Future Of America on August 22 2017 said:
    Here is what I see for America. As we are preparing the Baby Boomers to enter the nursing homes, here enters the Generation X's. Generation X's were taught to think for themselves and grasp all they can get, even if it means to destroy others. They will implement more greed and optimistic for their self gratification. They were generation that when protesting, they do so at their convenience; as long it did not interfere with their occupation and reruns of Friend's.

    What is more devastating is when the Millennial take over in the next decade or so. The American Millennials is a generation that I like to call, "The Trophy Generation" where everyone is a winner. When reality sets in for these Millennials in the next decade, we will see a grudge match of people fighting to get to the top. We are witnessing more riots, protests, safe space, and dependency than their predecessors. It will be a generation that will put everything in their pocket because they feel entitled while leaving everyone else dry. In this, we will see the deterioration of society where there will be no care in the world for improvement. They will cut what they have to cut because they need to eat their share of the pie. The madness of the Millennial will lead to the devastation their successors, Generation Z.

    Revolution in America will come from the deplorable ones of Generation Z as they will be bankrupt from the Greed of the Baby Boomers, arrogance of Generation X, and the irresponsibility of the Millennials. The madness Generation Z will live in will be intolerable that they will revolt against their predecessors. They will be the generation that will get the left over of fish and chicken bones out of a trash bag.

    In conclusion, we will not see this shake up in society for the next 40 years.
  • N8 Dawg on August 28 2017 said:
    Pleasantly surprised to come across an article like this on oilprice. Also pleased to see so many people commenting. For years I've tried to imagine what a revolution/civil war would look like in modern day America. We're too integrated for a Mason Dixon line type scenario. The violence would have to be drawn across different lines. Some believe race. The thought of that it terrifying. Most likely across classes if the ignorant vote has it their way. The true elite would watch the chaos from safety. How many of the attacks would be cyber? In the event of social collapse/civil unrest just try and be prepared to weather it for 90 days. The govt usually comes in by then to restore order. After people are tired, hungry, out of ammo, out of medical supplies, out of killers and killees. 90 day. Look it up.
  • Infidel Canuck on May 09 2019 said:
    RE: populations would inevitably polarize into protective islands of self-interest, surrounded by seas of unthinking locusts.

    This very nicely summarizes the thinking of the gentrified, leftist elites ruling the coastal urban populations and driving the globalist culture. The rest of the country in between doesn't exist, and if it does it is populated by 'deplorables' (unthinking locusts).

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