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Dave Forest

Dave Forest

Dave is Managing Geologist of the Pierce Points Daily E-Letter.

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Bank Lending and Other Key Stats Take a Turn for the worse

I wrote last month that several economic indicators seemed to be turning positive.
I may have spoken too soon.

The last two weeks a number of key stats have taken a notable turn for the worse.
U.S. commercial paper yields, for one. I know I've been talking about this a lot lately, but the action in this market is getting very unsettling.

On Friday, yields on 90-day asset backed commercial paper spiked to 0.49%. Their highest since July 1, 2009.

US Commercial Paper Rates

90-day yields settled back yesterday, but at higher levels than we've seen for the last several months. There is a notable flight from this market.

Bank lending has also taken a nosedive of late. Since April 7, outstanding loans at U.S. commercial banks have fallen by over $50 billion. The biggest two-week drop so far in 2010.

US Bank Loans & Credit

(Remember, the big "jump" for the week of March 31, was a statistical anomaly. Caused by banks bringing loans held in special purpose vehicles back onto their balance sheets, as mandated by new accounting rules.)

It seems that, after a short respite, the economic climate has once again turned dubious. Forewarned is forearmed.

By. Dave Forest of Notela Resources


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