• 4 minutes Pompeo: Aramco Attacks Are An "Act Of War" By Iran
  • 7 minutes Who Really Benefits From The "Iran Attacked Saudi Arabia" Narrative?
  • 11 minutes Trump Will Win In 2020
  • 15 minutes Experts review Saudi damage photos. Say Said is need to do a lot of explaining.
  • 1 min Ethanol is the SAVIOR of the Oil Industry, Convenience Store Industry, Automotive Supply Chain Industry and Much More!
  • 12 hours Saudi State-of-Art Defense System looking the wrong way. MBS must fire Defense Minister. Oh, MBS is Defense Minister. Forget about it.
  • 6 hours Let's shut down dissent like The Conversation in Australia
  • 2 hours One of the fire satellite pictures showed what look like the fire hit outside the main oil complex. Like it hit storage or pipeline facility. Not big deal.
  • 1 hour Trump Accidentally Discusses Technology Used In The Border Wall
  • 12 hours Hong Kong protesters appeal to Trump for support.
  • 5 hours Collateral Damage: Saudi Disruption Leaves Canada's Biggest Refinery Vulnerable
  • 20 hours Saudis Buying Oil From Iraq
  • 2 mins Famous Manufacturer of Anti-Ethanol Additives Proves Ethanol's Safety and Benefits
  • 2 hours Ethanol, the Perfect Home Remedy for A Saudi Oil Fever
  • 21 hours Donald Trump Proposes Harnessing Liberal Tears To Provide Clean Energy
  • 21 hours Saudis Confirm a Cruise Missile from Iranian Origin
  • 5 hours Iran in the world market
Alt Text

Can Oil Survive The Looming Economic “Ice Age?”

A wide-spread economic recession is…

Alt Text

Three Essential Factors For Oil Prices In 2020

Three essential factors will determine…

Alt Text

Gas Price Jump Imminent Following Saudi Attacks

The attack on a Saudi Arabia…

Osama Rizvi

Osama Rizvi

Osama is a business graduate and a student of international relations. Currently working as freelance journalist, covering commodities and geopolitics.Osama is a regular contributor to a variety…

More Info

Premium Content

Stormy Seas Ahead For Oil Markets

While the November OPEC deal sent crude sailing above $50, oil markets are expected to face some strong headwinds going forward. The Federal Open Market Committee will hold its policy setting meeting from the 14th to the 16th of December. The markets are expecting a rate hike due to strong U.S. economic data and job figures. “U.S. GDP growth in the third quarter of 2016 was revised upward from initial estimates of 2.9 percent to 3.2 percent, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.”

This month’s job market report showed a total of 178,000 jobs added in November, with the unemployment rate at 4.6 percent. Also, cases filed for unemployment benefit have dropped to 258,000, significantly below the ceiling of 300,000. This was the 92nd week in a row that claims have been below 300,000. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has incessantly emphasized the case that any job increase above 100, 000 is symptomatic of strong growth. It is no surprise then that many market analysts see a rate hike of 0.25 as a high possibility in December. As a result of this, the dollar index touched a 13-year high. Such a strong dollar is bad news for commodities, with costs increasing in non-dollar markets. Related: Filling The Gap: Tomorrow’s Most Popular Oil Trade

Also, the recent uncertainty over the OPEC deal becoming a reality has added further downward pressure to oil prices. Brent and WTI both shed a few points after news of record production from OPEC and Russia, as well as a 4-million-barrel inventory build at Cushing. Corroborating this uncertainty is the EIA’s short term energy outlook released this November.

“EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $43 per barrel (b) in 2016 and $52/b in 2017. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average about $1/b less than Brent prices in 2017. The values of futures and options contracts indicate significant uncertainty in the price outlook.”

Another important issue that may affect the demand of oil is China. With the Financial Times reporting that the strengthening dollar could be fatal news for the Chinese economy. Related: More Federal Land Drilling: Possible, But Not Profitable

“The Institute of International Finance, a global association of financial institutions, calculates that in the first 10 months of this year net capital outflows from China totaled $530bn, with October marking the 33rd straight month in which more money left the country than flowed in. With money pouring out of China, Beijing has little choice but to tighten domestic monetary conditions in spite of the difficulties for companies already unable to service their debt.”

Simple economics shows that a tight monetary policy will cause imports to feel the heat. Moreover, China is struggling with its transition from a manufacturing to a service based economy. This has led to a weakening in demand from one of the major engines of the oil market.

In addition to this, many oil companies are readying themselves to kick-start previously postponed projects. The purchasing of some stakes in Rosneft by Qatar, the Mad Dog oil field by BP, Royal Dutch Shell’s venture into Iran and many more. The Kazakh oil field, Kashagan, is another addition. All this and the doubts hovering over the deal, certainly doesn’t bode well for the oil industry. So while things may all appear to be hunky-dory, the reality is quite different.

By Osama Rizvi for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:




Download The Free Oilprice App Today

Back to homepage



Leave a comment
  • darryl on December 10 2016 said:
    Well now we are about 5 for 5 in extremely pessimistic headlines about oil.... the bottom must be in! Yes, OPEC cut won't change anything, demand is falling, electric cars are everywhere and Shale oil drillers will keep drilling - even if they don't have any capital.

    I suspect we have a few traders caught with their shorts down??? Pardon the pun.

    Anyway, it takes zero intelligence to predict and forcast the oil market is dismal - I think the price crash the last two years was evidence enough. So, oil will never recover?
  • Dan on December 10 2016 said:
    Perhaps. Certainly with a Trump presidency we can finally receive real data from the EIA on a weekly basis. Draw numbers have been all over the map as oilprice.com even mentioned the great possible, not so hard to believe, fake storage numbers for oil and the somewhat unbelievable draw numbers for natural gas a few years ago during the coldest winter in 100 years. Notice natural gas way up even before winter as Obama''s term nears it end? Manipulation? Ask oilprice.com. Certainly with an ex Wall Street Morgan Stanley EIA head, follow the money and manipulation. Has Morgan settled all it legal charges?
    The good news is the huge and I mean huge increase in tourism in the U.S. summer months as the pick up truck, a seemly status symbol for baby boomers, have taken over the roads and outnumber cars at least 5 to 1 now on the highway before my eyes. Baby Boomers have nothing to do but travel and eat up that oil promptly.
    Nice non Opec countries have joined in with the cut. 8 degrees f. this morning, the U.S. in a deep freeze but don't look for much drawdown til January 21st.2017.

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News
Download on the App Store Get it on Google Play