WTI and Brent hit fresh lows on Friday over persistent fears of oversupply. The latest thing to drag down oil is the prospect of Iran quickly returning some significant volumes of oil to the market.
That is because “Implementation Day,” the day that Iran fulfills all necessary requirements stemming from the historic nuclear agreement reach last year, is expected imminently. U.S. Secretary of State said on Wednesday that the achievement would be reached “within the next coming days.” The IAEA is expected to issue a report as soon as today that will affirm Iran’s compliance. Related: Another $165 Million Deal Signed In This Emerging Oil Hotspot
That means the sanctions on Iran could be lifted as soon as next week, and as such, Iran could quickly bring back some oil production and exports. Iran has promised to ramp up oil exports by 500,000 barrels per day almost immediately. Iranian officials have also said that within a year of the removal of sanctions, it could bring back 1 million barrels per day.
At the same time, Iran has dialed back the ambition in recent weeks, saying that it will only produce as much as global demand justifies.
For now, oil markets are taking in the news and expecting more price pressure. WTI and Brent dropped nearly five percent during intraday trading on January 15.
By Charles Kennedy of Oilprice.com
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Is Iran going to be able to produce a barrel of oil for $30?
I don't think so.
So they start flooding the market with the same strategy the Saudis are using. They'll spend all their cash to produce $30-$29 a barrel oil that cost them a least $60 a barrel.
May take both countries several years to run out of cash but is seems to be a failing strategy in the end.
Hedge Fund short position rose to an all time high of 213.5M barrels of oil. They shorted 6M barrels of oil every day, which is equal to 2/3 of production of Saudia Arabia. It is equal to 3 times the produciton of Iran.
This needs to be reported. 40% of all world storage is already sold due to this position. In the last 3 months, they have added over 127M barrels short to their position. It is absolutely ridiculous the headlines being made up to explain what is so simple.
Wall Street Hedge funds shorted the life out of oil.