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Goldman: Expect Another Bull Run In Oil

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Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson is a retired computer engineer. He worked in Saudi Arabia for five years, two years at the Ghazlan Power Plant near Ras Tanura…

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OPEC Production Up As Exempt Countries Increase Output

Oil Barrels

All data below is based on the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

All data is through May 2017 and is in thousand barrels per day.

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OPEC crude only production was up 336,000 barrels per day in May. The two countries that are not subject to OPEC quotas, Nigeria and Libya, were up a combined 352,000 barrels per day. That means the rest of OPEC was down 16,000 bpd. And all this was after OPEC April production was revised upward by 72,000 barrels per day.

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March OPEC production was revised upward by 23,000 bpd while April production was revised upward by 72,000 bpd.

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Not much is happening in Algeria. They peaked almost 10 years ago and have been in slow decline ever since.

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Angola peaked in 2010 but have been holding pretty steady since.

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Ecuador peaked in 2015. They will be in a slow decline from now on.

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Any change in Gabon crude oil production is too small to make much difference.

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Iran’s recovery from sanctions has apparently peaked. I expect a slow decline from here.

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Iraq is down 218,000 barrels per day since their December peak.

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Kuwait is down 154,000 bpd from their November peak. That is about 5.4 percent.

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Libya was up 178,200 barrels per day in May but they still have a long way to go before they get back to their maximum possible production level, which is around 1.4 million bpd.

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Nigeria was up 174,200 bpd in May but they had more labor problems in June. So look for their production to drop slightly next month.

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Qatar has been in decline since 2008. Her decline will continue albeit at a very slow pace.

Saudi Arabia cut in January, then stopped cutting. I think this is where we will be for some time unless there is a real shake up in OPEC.

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The UAE is down almost 205,000 bpd since December. This is the largest percentage cut in OPEC. I don’t think it is all voluntary.

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Venezuela’s problems will continue. They are now below two million barrels per day. They are at 1,963,000 bpd. Last March their production was 2,286,000 bpd.

They are saying global oil supply was up 113,000 barrels per day in May. OPEC production was up 336,000 bpd in May. If these two figures are correct, then Non-OPEC had to be down 223,000 barrels per day in May.

By Peak Oil Barrel

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