Summary:Â Optimists about energy give glowing forecasts of new technologies, often with wildly underestimated estimates of when when these can generate substantial fractions of our energy.Â In the real world technologies take decades to evolve from the laboratory to commercialization. And then building new energy sources on a large scale takes decades.Â
Here we sketch out realistic timelines.
1.Â Time, often the missing element from analysis about the energy problem
2.Â The path from lab to megawatts
3.Â Where are the hot new energy sources it the R&D development process?
4.Â How long will it take to scale up successful new energy sources?
5.Â So when should we get started?
(1)Â Time, often the missing element from analysis about the energy problem
There are two common errors about time when discussing new energy sources.Â First, exaggerating how quickly new technology develops from lab to commercialization.Â Thatâs the subject of this post.Â But optimists often make a more fundamental error.
âEconomists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if, in tempestuous seasons, they can only tell us that when the storm is long past the ocean is flat again.â
â John Maynard Keynes in A Tract on Monetary Reform (1923)
Much of the cornucopiansâ optimism comes from confidence that eventually new energy sources will be found.Â I agree.Â Future generations will use energy sources beyond anything in our science fiction.Â But that probably will not help us or our children.Â Our prosperity almost certainly depends on what we do.Â Trusting to the invisible hand (an exaggeration of what Adam Smith said) means that either weâre lucky â or our children might be poorer than us.
More specifically, the energy sources we will rely on in the next 25 (probably even 50 years) have already been discovered.
(2)Â The path from lab to megawatts
1.Â Laboratory:Â testing proof of concept.
2.Â Pilot Plant: A larger unit built to generate information. Such as about the optimal engineering design, impact of operating parameters on process efficiency and product quality, qualification of input requirements, development of safe operating procedures, and estimates of capital and operating costs.
3.Â Demonstration plant:Â A larger scale plant that generates significant quantities of product, testing decisions made at the pilot level.
4.Â Production and commercialization.
There are no agreed-upon definitions for each of these stages.
Update:Â Just because something has been proven to work does not mean it is profitable in its current form.Â Such as coal-to-liquids (converting coal into liquid fuel).Â It was used as a desperate expedient by the NAZIâs and South African apartaid regimes, but even with improved technology it remains of uncertain profitability today (see yesterdayâs post for details).
(3)Â Where are some hot new energy sources in the R&D development process?
Enthusiasts often exaggerate when cheering their favorite technologyâs state of development.Â Hereâs a quick review of some energy tech:
â¢Â Cellusosic ethanol:Â from laboratory to demonstration plant (see the Range Fuels fiasco, Ineos Bio pilot plant, SuGanit Systems pilot plant, Woodland Biofuels demonstration plant, Genera Energy demonstration plant).
â¢Â Mining and refining oil sands (bitumen):Â large scale commercial plants running using surface-mining; underground mining in the pilot and demonstration plant stages (see this list).Â Most of the deposits are deep underground.
â¢Â Coal to liquids:Â plants are running in the pilot, demonstration, and production stages.Â Cost-effective new plants are in the pilot and demonstration stages.
New tech, especially break-through technology, usually takes decades to evolve from the lab bench to commercial use.
(4)Â How long will it take to scale up successful new energy sources
Politicians often speak of energy independence for America.Â Unfortunately itâs an absurd dream, except perhaps over several generations.Â The US imports roughly ten million barrels of oil per day.Â Nothing will replace imports during the next 10 years, and probably during the next 20 years.Â There are no fast solutions.
Considered the microwave oven (from Wikipedia):
â¢Â 1934 â first patent on the technology roughly
â¢Â 1945 â a discovery of the heating effect of microwaves at Raytheon
â¢Â 1947 â Raytheon builds the the first commercial microwave oven. The Radarange was 6 feet tall, weighted 750 pounds, and cost $5,000 (the cost of a home).
â¢Â 1967 â the first microwave with large sales, costing $500Â (average cost of a car was $2800)
â¢Â 1971 â aprox 1 percent of US homes have a microwave oven
â¢Â 1986 â aprox 1 in 4 US homes have a microwave over
â¢Â now â aprox 90% of US homes have one
Look at bitumen (oil sands) mining in Canada.Â The first mine opened in 1967; the third in 2003.Â Â By 2005 (aprox) Canada produced over one million barrels per day (MBD), and 1.4 mbd in 2009.Â Their goal is 3.3 mbd by 2020 (down from aÂ 20 mbd target a few years ago).Â Perhaps 4.2 mbd by 2030.Â But the next development is new technologyÂ tap deeper deposits (in situ mining), and progress is slower than expected.
China planned to build plants converting coal to liquid fuels producing one million barrels/day by 2020, before putting most of the program on hold (see yesterdayâs post for details).
And large projects require more time to build in the US.Â A new mine in the US takesÂ 7-10 years from initial application.Â If needed to move the coal from mines to the CTL plant, a new railroad can require 5 or 10 years to build, depending on the location (people hate dirty, noisy coal trains running through their neighborhoods).
Of course, we could do crash programs.Â Which have some serious side-effects.Â Most important, accelerated programs drive up costs.Â A lot, as companies operating in the Albert oil sands boom discovered.Â WWII is not a useful comparison.Â Not only was cost not a factor for the US (great news for the war contractors), but the Great Depression resulted in vast idle resources (both plant and people) that could be quickly mobilized.
For more about this see Could a new âManhattan Projectâ produce radically new energy sources?, 29 June 2010
(5)Â So when should we get started?
âKnowledge is the great sun of the firmament,â said Senator Daniel Webster. âLife and power are scattered with all its beams.â
In its light, we must think and act not only for the moment but for our time. I am reminded of the story of the great French Marshal Lyautey, who once asked his gardener to plant a tree. The gardener objected that the tree was slow-growing and would not reach maturity for a hundred years. The Marshal replied, âIn that case, there is no time to lose, plant it this afternoon.â
Today a world of knowledge â a world of cooperation â a just and lasting peace â may be years away. But we have no time to lose. Let us plant our trees this afternoon.
â President Kennedy, speech at U California at Berkeley, 23 March 1962
By. Fabius Maximus
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