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Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson is a retired computer engineer. He worked in Saudi Arabia for five years, two years at the Ghazlan Power Plant near Ras Tanura…

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Where Will U.S. Oil Production Go In 2017?

The EIA has just released its Short-Term Energy Outlook. Some of their projections should be taken with a grain of salt because they usually change every month. Nevertheless…

All U.S. production is Crude + Condensate. All other production numbers are total liquids. The data is in million barrels per day.

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The EIA has U.S. production leveling out at just under 8.8 million bpd until Oct. 2017.

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They have all large gains coming from the Gulf of Mexico.

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The EIA sees no big gains coming from shale plays. They have production bottoming out in March and April, then increasing only slightly the rest of the year.

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They have Alaska pretty much holding its own through 2017.

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They have Non-OPEC liquids recovering in 2017 but still holding below the 2015 average.

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The big increase in 2017 average is supposed to come from Russia. They have Russia peaking in January then starting a slow but steady decline.

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The EIA says China saw a huge increase in liquids production in November, down slightly in December before dropping again in January. I have no idea where the EIA got this November production data from. I could find nothing on the web that confirmed this data.

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Europe consists primarily of the UK, Norway and other North Sea production. The EIA has Europe declining throughout 2017 before recovering somewhat in October.

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And just out, the EIA’s weekly estimate of U.S. Weekly Petroleum Status Report with their best estimate of U.S. C+C production as of December 2nd. This data is in thousand barrels per day.

By Ron Patterson via Peakoilbarrel.com

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