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Felicity Bradstock

Felicity Bradstock

Felicity Bradstock is a freelance writer specialising in Energy and Finance. She has a Master’s in International Development from the University of Birmingham, UK.

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The Unmistakable Impact Of The IEA’s ‘Fantasy’ Report

In an effort to adapt to Trudeau’s recent green policies and owing to pressure from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Canadian oil sand producers have formed an alliance to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. This would see a huge shift from current practices as, at present, oil sands producers extract some of the most carbon-intense crude oil. However, as the cost of carbon increases to meet environmental objectives in Canada, oil companies face increasing pressure to shift practices towards achieving net-zero. 

The alliance will include Canadian Natural Resources, Cenovus Energy, Imperial Oil, MEG Energy, and Suncor Energy, which together operate around 90 percent of the country’s oil sands production. They will be working alongside both the federal and Alberta governments to make operations less carbon-intensive. 

The companies are expected to invest in several areas in order to reduce their carbon emissions including, carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, repurposing waste into hydrogen energy, fuel switching, as well as innovative technologies such as direct air capture and small modular nuclear reactors.

The alliance aims to maintain its oil production, which will contribute an estimated $3 trillion to Canada’s GDP over the next 30 years while creating jobs and advancing clean energy practices.

Significant actions towards achieving net-zero have been taken across the oil and gas sector over the last month, as companies have felt the mounting pressure from governments, regulators, and stakeholder activists. 

Last month, an activist investor managed to oust two Exxon directors from its board in a push for a greater response to climate change. The small hedge fund, Engine No. 1, demonstrated its dissatisfaction with the poor financial performance of Exxon during the pandemic, as well as its limited effort to introduce climate change initiatives. 

Anne Simpson, managing investment director of the California Public Employees Retirement System, stated of the dramatic move that “Investors are no longer standing on the sidelines. This is a day of reckoning.” Related: Judge Blocks Biden’s Ban On Oil Leasing

In another blow to big oil, Royal Dutch Shell was ordered by a Dutch court to massively reduce its CO2 emissions in a landmark climate ruling last month. The company must cut emissions by 45 percent by 2030, on its 2019 levels, including emissions on its own operations and on all energy products sold by Shell.

The court ruling was the first of its kind against such a huge international player, showing that there is a clear trend happening across the oil industry. 

This comes after the IEA published its May report encouraging governments as well as oil and gas companies around the world to curb their oil production, invest in renewable energy projects, and reduce carbon emissions. 

Randy Ollenberger, managing director of oil and gas equity research at BMO Capital Markets said of the IEA recommendations that they are “a bit of a fantasy. It’s not going to be achieved, but it does create some potentially dangerous side-effects in so far as policymakers look at those prescriptions and say, ‘We’ll do all of this including tell oil and gas companies to stop spending money’.”

As companies feel the pressure to cut spending and limit oil supply, we may expect an oil price spike of up to $100 per barrel. Green policies introduced by several governments around the world have already put pressure on oil and gas companies to limit investment in fossil fuels to the short term while thinking about longer-term renewable energy projects to add to their portfolios. Pressure from governments, regulators, and investors as well as the potential for courts to rule in favor of green policies could spell a major shift in oil and gas.

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com

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Leave a comment
  • Mamdouh Salameh on June 20 2021 said:
    Neither courtrooms nor boardrooms or a vicious warfare against Big Oil to force it to divest of its oil and gas assets will change the fact that the global economy will continue to run on oil and gas almost indefinitely.

    Efforts by militant climate change activists and divestment campaigners and even some governments to con the global public opinion by pedalling of untruths and downright lies about net-zero emissions by 2050, energy transition, peak oil demand and end of oil will backfire on them. It will result in a supply crunch down the road with oil price spiking even beyond $150 a barrel and impacting very adversely on the global economy.

    The IEA’s la-la-land net-zero emissions by 2050 roadmap has been overwhelmingly dismissed by oil producers and oil experts alike and ended in the paper pin.

    Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
    International Oil Economist
    Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London

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