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Russian Upstream Oil And Gas Investment Set To Plunge By $15 Billion

  • Upstream oil and gas investment in Russia is set to decline by $15 billion this year as a result of Western sanctions and the exodus of foreign companies.
  • According to Rystad Energy, investment in Russian upstream oil and gas hit $45 billion last year and was expected to rise to $50 billion in 2022.
  • This is likely to be the start of a multi-year slump in investment, with Russia’s LNG industry set to be hit the hardest.
Oil and gas

Investment in the upstream oil and gas industry in Russia could decline by $15 billion this year as a result of Western sanctions, Rystad Energy has calculated, saying the total for the year could end up around $35 billion.

The analytical firm noted that Russian upstream investments stood at $45 billion last year, increasing from $40 billion in 2020. Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, upstream investments in the country were expected to rise to $50 billion in 2022, but sanctions have begun to bite and investment is set to decline substantially amid the exodus of Western oil companies from the country.

According to Rystad, investments would remain lower than normal until at least 2025 but this would likely affect smaller oil companies, while Gazprom and Rosneft will be able to continue spending as they were spending until this year, the company said.

The situation appears to be particularly worrying for the LNG industry, where several large-scale projects have been delayed because of sanction-related problems with technology and funding.

“The war in Ukraine has cost the Russian oil and gas sector dearly, with project investments taking a significant hit. Covid-related disruptions in 2020 dragged down spending but this year looks set to be the start of a multi-year slump that will make the Covid years pale in comparison,” said Swapnil Babele, a senior analyst with Rystad.

The worst affected projects will be Greenfield ones, the analytical firm also said, with investment in new field development set to decline by 40 percent this year from last, to $8 billion from $13.7 billion.

Next year Rystad does not expect any significant new oil and gas projects to receive approval amid the lingering effects of Western sanctions. In 2024, however, there will be a boost in production as Gazprom begins extraction from one new field and Rosneft launches production at one of the fields comprising the giant Vostok Oil project.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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  • Mamdouh Salameh on December 01 2022 said:
    Western sanctions against Russia haven’t only failed miserably but they were a great blessing in disguise in that they enabled the Russian economy to be virtually totally self-sufficient. That is why Russia needs neither Western technology nor finances to develop its oil and gas projects particularly the Vostok oil project costing $157 bn and using homegrown technology.

    And that is also why Rystad Energy’s calculations of a decline of $15 bn in Russia’s upstream oil and gas investment this year can be easily ignored as Western disinformation. Isn’t Rystad Energy who along with IEA kept hyping about the potential of US shale oil claiming at the height of their hyping that by 2025 shale oil production at 25 million barrels a day (mbd) will be bigger than the combined Saudi and Russian production? Well shale oil has been a spent force since 2020.

    Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
    International Oil Economist
    Global Energy Expert

Leave a comment




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