• 3 minutes e-car sales collapse
  • 6 minutes America Is Exceptional in Its Political Divide
  • 11 minutes Perovskites, a ‘dirt cheap’ alternative to silicon, just got a lot more efficient
  • 1 day GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES
  • 2 days The United States produced more crude oil than any nation, at any time.
  • 8 days e-truck insanity
  • 3 days How Far Have We Really Gotten With Alternative Energy
  • 7 days Oil Stocks, Market Direction, Bitcoin, Minerals, Gold, Silver - Technical Trading <--- Chris Vermeulen & Gareth Soloway weigh in
  • 6 days James Corbett Interviews Irina Slav of OILPRICE.COM - "Burn, Hollywood, Burn!" - The Corbett Report
  • 6 days The European Union is exceptional in its political divide. Examples are apparent in Hungary, Slovakia, Sweden, Netherlands, Belarus, Ireland, etc.
  • 8 days Biden's $2 trillion Plan for Insfrastructure and Jobs
  • 8 days "What’s In Store For Europe In 2023?" By the CIA (aka RFE/RL as a ruse to deceive readers)
  • 11 days Bankruptcy in the Industry
The Oil Price Rally Has Stalled... For Now.

The Oil Price Rally Has Stalled... For Now.

Oil prices have been climbing…

Morgan Stanley Hikes Its Summer Oil Price Forecast to $94

Morgan Stanley Hikes Its Summer Oil Price Forecast to $94

Geopolitical tensions and tighter supply…

Matt Smith

Matt Smith

Taking a voyage across the world of energy with ClipperData’s Director of Commodity Research. Follow on Twitter @ClipperData, @mattvsmith01

More Info

Premium Content

Russian Crude Output Highest Since Fall Of Soviet Union

Russian Crude Output Highest Since Fall Of Soviet Union

Ok folks, here are five factors to consider on this first Friday in October:

1) It is Nonfarm Friday, and official US employment data has just come out. It was terrible. Only 142,000 jobs were created, when 203,000 were expected. To add insult to injury, last month’s numbers saw a huge downward revision from 173k to 136k. The unemployment rate held at 5.1%, while the labor force participation rate dropped to its lowest level since October 1977 at 62.4%. Disenchantment reigns as a growing number of people throw in the towel from actively looking for a job.

(Click to enlarge)

2) After initially being propelled higher by a sell-off in the dollar immediately after the Nonfarm payrolls report, the crude complex is now charging lower, falling in line with broad-based risk aversion. Despite the evaporation of interest rate-hike expectations in response to the poor employment report, markets are selling off on the fear that the US economy is joining the trend seen in emerging markets: that of economic deterioration. Today is a good day, however, if you own gold or are looking to lock in a mortgage rate (Treasury yields are plummeting). Related:Obama’s Fracking Regulations Take A Serious Hit

3) According to government data, Russian oil output rose to 10.74 million barrels a day in September. This is up 0.4% from August, and the highest level since the fall of the Soviet Union.

4) Hurricane Joaquin strengthened late yesterday to a category 4 hurricane, but is now set to peel away into the Atlantic Ocean, opposed to heading for landfall on the East coast. The impact of a direct hit from Joaquin similar to Sandy would be a bearish influence for oil, as refineries in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Delaware would likely have to be shut down – for fear of flooding or damage. Related: Alaska Facing Tough Choices Without Arctic Oil

But the real bearish influence for oil comes from the potential of power cuts. These power cuts could also impact pipeline flows from the Gulf, while waterborne imports into NY Harbor would be delayed. So in a nutshell – bearish for oil, bullish for gasoline, but transitory for all. Fortunately, though, this situation is only hypothetical as Joaquin is set to head further east.

(Click to enlarge)

5) The Brazilian economy continues to worsen, manifested today in industrial production data for August. Although it came in better than expected, it still showed a drop of 9% YoY, with a 1.2% drop on the prior month. Things going from bad to worse in Brazil… Related:Can Economies Of Scale Rescue TSLA?

(Click to enlarge)

ADVERTISEMENT

Brazilian Industrial Production YoY, % (source: investing.com)

By Matt Smith

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:


Download The Free Oilprice App Today

Back to homepage





Leave a comment

Leave a comment




EXXON Mobil -0.35
Open57.81 Trading Vol.6.96M Previous Vol.241.7B
BUY 57.15
Sell 57.00
Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News