• 2 days PDVSA Booted From Caribbean Terminal Over Unpaid Bills
  • 2 days Russia Warns Ukraine Against Recovering Oil Off The Coast Of Crimea
  • 2 days Syrian Rebels Relinquish Control Of Major Gas Field
  • 2 days Schlumberger Warns Of Moderating Investment In North America
  • 2 days Oil Prices Set For Weekly Loss As Profit Taking Trumps Mideast Tensions
  • 2 days Energy Regulators Look To Guard Grid From Cyberattacks
  • 2 days Mexico Says OPEC Has Not Approached It For Deal Extension
  • 2 days New Video Game Targets Oil Infrastructure
  • 2 days Shell Restarts Bonny Light Exports
  • 2 days Russia’s Rosneft To Take Majority In Kurdish Oil Pipeline
  • 3 days Iraq Struggles To Replace Damaged Kirkuk Equipment As Output Falls
  • 3 days British Utility Companies Brace For Major Reforms
  • 3 days Montenegro A ‘Sweet Spot’ Of Untapped Oil, Gas In The Adriatic
  • 3 days Rosneft CEO: Rising U.S. Shale A Downside Risk To Oil Prices
  • 3 days Brazil Could Invite More Bids For Unsold Pre-Salt Oil Blocks
  • 3 days OPEC/Non-OPEC Seek Consensus On Deal Before Nov Summit
  • 3 days London Stock Exchange Boss Defends Push To Win Aramco IPO
  • 3 days Rosneft Signs $400M Deal With Kurdistan
  • 3 days Kinder Morgan Warns About Trans Mountain Delays
  • 4 days India, China, U.S., Complain Of Venezuelan Crude Oil Quality Issues
  • 4 days Kurdish Kirkuk-Ceyhan Crude Oil Flows Plunge To 225,000 Bpd
  • 4 days Russia, Saudis Team Up To Boost Fracking Tech
  • 4 days Conflicting News Spurs Doubt On Aramco IPO
  • 4 days Exxon Starts Production At New Refinery In Texas
  • 4 days Iraq Asks BP To Redevelop Kirkuk Oil Fields
  • 5 days Oil Prices Rise After U.S. API Reports Strong Crude Inventory Draw
  • 5 days Oil Gains Spur Growth In Canada’s Oil Cities
  • 5 days China To Take 5% Of Rosneft’s Output In New Deal
  • 5 days UAE Oil Giant Seeks Partnership For Possible IPO
  • 5 days Planting Trees Could Cut Emissions As Much As Quitting Oil
  • 5 days VW Fails To Secure Critical Commodity For EVs
  • 5 days Enbridge Pipeline Expansion Finally Approved
  • 5 days Iraqi Forces Seize Control Of North Oil Co Fields In Kirkuk
  • 5 days OPEC Oil Deal Compliance Falls To 86%
  • 6 days U.S. Oil Production To Increase in November As Rig Count Falls
  • 6 days Gazprom Neft Unhappy With OPEC-Russia Production Cut Deal
  • 6 days Disputed Venezuelan Vote Could Lead To More Sanctions, Clashes
  • 6 days EU Urges U.S. Congress To Protect Iran Nuclear Deal
  • 6 days Oil Rig Explosion In Louisiana Leaves 7 Injured, 1 Still Missing
  • 6 days Aramco Says No Plans To Shelve IPO
Alt Text

Russia And China Continue To Boost Oil Ties

The Russia-China alliance is strengthening…

Alt Text

Is OPEC Considering Deeper Output Cuts?

You could argue OPEC and…

Matt Smith

Matt Smith

Taking a voyage across the world of energy with ClipperData’s Director of Commodity Research. Follow on Twitter @ClipperData, @mattvsmith01

More Info

OPEC Optimism Lifts Oil Prices To One-Month High

Oil Rig

Last week we discussed how some OPEC producers are exhibiting compliance via lower exports, while others are not. Our export data affirms what others are saying about Iraq: that OPEC's second largest producer has not been playing ball.

Exports out of the south of the country continue to hold up, above 3 million barrels per day, while exports from the north are also consistently holding above 500,000 bpd.

India remains the leading destination for Iraqi crude, just beating out China. It has averaged just over 700,000 bpd of deliveries since the start of last year, while China is averaging just under that threshold.

The U.S. is the third leading destination, accounting for just under 500,000 bpd over the same period - with imports last month reaching a whopping 842,000 bpd. Indian imports were super-strong too last month, climbing to close to 1 million bpd.

(Click to enlarge)

The chart below from the WSJ provides a number of different insights into China's passenger car fleet. While the government is targeting 40 percent of cars sold in 2030 to be either electric vehicles or plug-in hybrids, SUV sales are projected to grow at a rampant pace instead.

SUV sales are about to surpass sales of sedans next year, with SUVs rising to 45 percent of the passenger-car fleet by 2025 - increasing from 4 million in 2010 to 150 million by 2025. Nonetheless, Bernstein Research projects that 9 percent of China's passenger-car fleet will be electric vehicles. That will equate to 30 million.

(Click to enlarge) 

The graphic below shows natural gas pricing on a global basis, illustrating how China has bears the highest costs in the world. Most of China's long-term LNG supply contracts are on an oil-linked basis, with it paying as much as 16.3 percent of the cost of crude. With U.S. natural gas prices so cheap, and given the impending increase in exports over the coming years, flows betwixt the U.S. and China look likely to ramp up over the next decade. Related: Oil Prices Rise As Saudis Discuss OPEC Deal Extension With Iraq

(Click to enlarge)

Exports should also be further encouraged by the bilateral trade agreement signed betwixt the U.S. and China last month. As the chart below illustrates from Rystad Energy, natural gas production in the U.S. and Canada can rise to accommodate higher LNG exports into next decade.

With oil-indexed prices likely to be ~$10/MMBtu for China into next decade for LNG imports from elsewhere, lower-priced North American gas will be a more attractive option. Rystad projects US and Canadian production to be at 105 Bcf/d by 2025, and sustainable at a natural gas price of $3/MMBtu.

(Click to enlarge)

Finally, the pun of the week thus far goes to RMG Investment Management, and their latest commentary titled 'Gentlemen prefer bonds'.

To attend our proprietary outlook on markets next month in Houston, New York, London and Geneva, please click on this link to register.

By Matt Smith

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:




Back to homepage


Leave a comment

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News