• 3 minutes Don't sneeze. Coronavirus is a threat to oil markets and global economies
  • 5 minutes Boris Johnson taken decision about 5G Huawei ban by delay (fait accompli method)
  • 9 minutes This Battery Uses Up CO2 to Create Energy
  • 12 minutes Shale Oil Fiasco
  • 1 hour Historian Slams Greta. I Don't See Her in Beijing or Delhi.
  • 2 days We're freezing! Isn't it great? The carbon tax must be working!
  • 2 days US (provocations and tech containment) and Chinese ( restraint and long game) strategies in hegemony conflict
  • 7 hours Let’s take a Historical walk around the Rig
  • 2 hours Beijing Must Face Reality That Taiwan is Independent
  • 17 hours Trump has changed into a World Leader
  • 17 hours Tesla Will ‘Disappear’ Or ‘Lose 80%’ Of Its Value
  • 2 days Indonesia Stands Up to China. Will Japan Help?
  • 17 hours Yesterday POLEXIT started (Poles do not want to leave EU, but Poland made the decisive step towards becoming dictatorship, in breach of accession treaty)
  • 2 days Might be Time for NG Producers to Find New Career
  • 3 days Environmentalists demand oil and gas companies *IN THE USA AND CANADA* reduce emissions to address climate change
  • 3 days Anti-Macron Protesters Cut Power Lines, Oil Refineries Already Joined Transport Workers as France Anti-Macron Strikes Hit France Hard
Darrell Delamaide

Darrell Delamaide

Darrell Delamaide is a writer, editor and journalist with more than 30 years' experience. He is the author of three books and has written for…

More Info

Premium Content

Emerging Markets will Drive Demand for Oil and Gas in Medium Term, IEA Says

Demand for both oil and natural gas should increase steadily over the medium term, but will be stronger in China, India and the Middle East than in the industrial countries, the International Energy Agency said in a new forecast.

“These contrasting trends cloud efforts to foresee how oil and gas markets will develop into the medium term,” said Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the IEA. “But what is clear is that both will need more investment, a greater focus on energy efficiency and improved data.”

For oil, IEA used two scenarios in its forecast. One, based on GDP growth of 4.5% a year from 2010 on as forecast by the International Monetary Fund, sees oil demand increasing an average 1.4% a year to reach nearly 92 million barrels a day by 2015. That scenario also predicates a reduction in oil use intensity of 3% annually.

The second scenario presumes 3% annual GDP growth – and slower reduction in oil use intensity – and forecasts 1% annual growth in oil demand to 90 mb/d by 2015.

Under the fast growth scenario, spare capacity, including added capacity in OPEC countries, could fall below 5% of global demand, which would lead to “more jittery markets,” the IEA said. Under the slower growth scenario, supplies would be more comfortable.

In either scenario, the agency noted, almost all growth in oil demand is to be found in countries that don’t belong to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The IEA also notes the “pivotal importance” of the transport sector in driving demand.

Natural gas shows the same dichotomy of faster growth in demand in places like China, where demand is expected to double by 2015, if not sooner, and Europe, where recovery in demand remains fragile.

Natural gas markets are characterized by the growth in unconventional production, which made the U.S. the largest natural gas producer in 2009, and the growth in liquefied natural gas, which will see supplies rise by 50% over the next few years from 2008 levels.

The agency cautioned, however, that there is no room for complacency regarding supply, given the long lead time for oil and gas projects.

Both energy sources require investment through the entire value chain, the IEA said, in the upstream and in new hydro-cracking capacity for oil, and in pipelines and other infrastructure for gas.

By. Darrell Delamaide




Download The Free Oilprice App Today

Back to homepage




Leave a comment

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News
Download on the App Store Get it on Google Play