• 4 minutes 5 Tweets That Change The World?
  • 7 minutes Trump Tariffs NOT China's Biggest concern. Chinese Shadow Banking Bigger. What is Shadow Banking You Ask ?
  • 11 minutes Wonders of US Shale: US Shale Benefits: The U.S. leads global petroleum and natural gas production with record growth in 2018
  • 15 minutes Glory to Hong Kong
  • 2 hours PETROLEUM for humanity 
  • 1 hour Any difference btw Hunter Biden on BOD of Ukraine Company vs. Qatar bailout of Kushner Real Estate 666 Fifth Ave ?
  • 1 hour Total SA In Expansion: $600 million For India's Adani Gas
  • 2 hours China's Blueprint For Global Power
  • 40 mins HK. Out. Now.
  • 14 hours National Geographic Warns Billions Face Shortages Of Food And Clean Water Over Next 30 Years
  • 11 hours Trump will capitulate on the trade war
  • 3 hours How The US Quietly Lost The 1st Amendment
  • 16 hours Crazy Stories From Round The World
  • 2 hours Who's Afraid Of Whom? - American Politics I
  • 14 hours DING DING DING DING DING DING DING DING DING DING DING DING DING DING DING DING DING
  • 16 hours Strategic beauty of attack on Iranian tanker
  • 1 hour Impeachment and Foreign Conflicts in USA Politics
  • 2 hours American Politics II - The Political Implosion / America At War With Itself
Alt Text

Another One Bites The Dust: Dyson Ditches Electric Car Project

British entrepreneur legend, James Dyson,…

Alt Text

Economics Beats Politics: A Major Opportunity In Solar

Given the current Presidential administration’s…

Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson is a retired computer engineer. He worked in Saudi Arabia for five years, two years at the Ghazlan Power Plant near Ras Tanura…

More Info

Premium Content

EIA vs IEA: When Will Oil Markets Balance?

(Click to enlarge) 

The IEA Oil Market Report was published in mid-April, data from the report can be found here.

(CLick to enlarge)

The EIA’s STEO was published on May 9, 2017.

(Click to enlarge)

I assume in the chart above that OPEC crude output is 32 Mb/d in the last three quarters of 2017.

(Click to enlarge)

(Click to enlarge)

The chart above assumes World commercial petroleum stocks are 5200 million barrels in Dec 2011, days of demand is total stock divided by the current month’s actual or forecasted demand (after Jan 2017). We don’t have good data on World petroleum stock levels, I used the OECD commercial stock levels in early 2012 as a guide and assumed World days of forward supply was similar to OECD levels at that time (about 59 days), then the supply and demand balance from the EIA data was used to find the World stock level from 2012 to 2018.

(Click to enlarge)

The chart above shows the average of the EIA and IEA scenarios I have presented (assuming OPEC crude output averages 32 Mb/d for the final three quarters of 2017 for the IEA scenario.) The demand scenarios are very close from 2015 to 2018, the supply scenarios diverge after the first quarter of 2017, with the EIA supply scenario matching demand and the IEA scenario falling short by about 1.3 Mb/d in the third and fourth quarters of 2017.

By Dennis Coyne via Peakoilbarrel.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:




Download The Free Oilprice App Today

Back to homepage



Leave a comment
  • Bud on May 13 2017 said:
    The IEA and OPEC numbers match up. Production for q1 was about 300k bpd greater than demand and there needs to be a deficit of 1 to 1.3 million bpd for the rest of 2017 to get the global supplies back to the five year average which is OPEC's stated goal. Since OPEC exported out of inventory like crazy, just like most, in q1, you can assume they are right on plan. U.S. Frackers geared up to spend big in q4 and q1 so adding 20k bp week cannot be something that blind sided them. As ioc's gear up to spend in the Permian they continue to starve investment in second tier OPEC and other global fields. The Saudis and the Russians may want to see oil range from 45-55 to prevent the U.S. From growing too fast, and the Russians don't want the ruble to gain too much either, however, the Saudis want to maximize ipo proceeds next year and at some point the lack of capital investment and depletion will catch up and swamp the 500k to 1 Mbpd increases in North America. Once the U.S. Is producing fully and the global supply hits a deficit oil will be back above 75 and the Russians wont worry about their ebitda and the Saudis will have their market cap. Trump is the guy who does not want 75 dollar oil now as he is getting the capital investment without the inflation or all of it at least.

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News
Download on the App Store Get it on Google Play