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Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson is a retired computer engineer. He worked in Saudi Arabia for five years, two years at the Ghazlan Power Plant near Ras Tanura…

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EIA vs IEA: When Will Oil Markets Balance?

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The IEA Oil Market Report was published in mid-April, data from the report can be found here.

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The EIA’s STEO was published on May 9, 2017.

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I assume in the chart above that OPEC crude output is 32 Mb/d in the last three quarters of 2017.

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The chart above assumes World commercial petroleum stocks are 5200 million barrels in Dec 2011, days of demand is total stock divided by the current month’s actual or forecasted demand (after Jan 2017). We don’t have good data on World petroleum stock levels, I used the OECD commercial stock levels in early 2012 as a guide and assumed World days of forward supply was similar to OECD levels at that time (about 59 days), then the supply and demand balance from the EIA data was used to find the World stock level from 2012 to 2018.

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(Click to enlarge)

The chart above shows the average of the EIA and IEA scenarios I have presented (assuming OPEC crude output averages 32 Mb/d for the final three quarters of 2017 for the IEA scenario.) The demand scenarios are very close from 2015 to 2018, the supply scenarios diverge after the first quarter of 2017, with the EIA supply scenario matching demand and the IEA scenario falling short by about 1.3 Mb/d in the third and fourth quarters of 2017.

By Dennis Coyne via Peakoilbarrel.com

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  • Bud on May 13 2017 said:
    The IEA and OPEC numbers match up. Production for q1 was about 300k bpd greater than demand and there needs to be a deficit of 1 to 1.3 million bpd for the rest of 2017 to get the global supplies back to the five year average which is OPEC's stated goal. Since OPEC exported out of inventory like crazy, just like most, in q1, you can assume they are right on plan. U.S. Frackers geared up to spend big in q4 and q1 so adding 20k bp week cannot be something that blind sided them. As ioc's gear up to spend in the Permian they continue to starve investment in second tier OPEC and other global fields. The Saudis and the Russians may want to see oil range from 45-55 to prevent the U.S. From growing too fast, and the Russians don't want the ruble to gain too much either, however, the Saudis want to maximize ipo proceeds next year and at some point the lack of capital investment and depletion will catch up and swamp the 500k to 1 Mbpd increases in North America. Once the U.S. Is producing fully and the global supply hits a deficit oil will be back above 75 and the Russians wont worry about their ebitda and the Saudis will have their market cap. Trump is the guy who does not want 75 dollar oil now as he is getting the capital investment without the inflation or all of it at least.

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