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Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson is a retired computer engineer. He worked in Saudi Arabia for five years, two years at the Ghazlan Power Plant near Ras Tanura…

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US Oil Production Finally Starting to Decline

 

(Click to enlarge)

The Monthly Energy Review and the Petroleum Supply Monthly have US production peaking, so far, in March and April. The Petroleum Supply Weekly has US production peaking in June. In the chart above I have averaged the Petroleum Supply Weekly into monthly data. All data is in thousand barrels per day. Related: EIA Capitulates Under Cover Of Darkness

(Click to enlarge)

Here we have the weekly data from the Petroleum Supply Weekly. The last data point is July 24th. The huge jumps you see are basically just revisions. The huge jump you see for the week of May 22nd, was not really a jump. The EIA explained that their prior numbers were too low and the sudden increase that week was merely an adjustment. Related: Don't Expect An Oil Price Rebound This Side Of 2017

(Click to enlarge)

The EIA is finally getting its act together as to Texas C+C production. They have Texas peaking in March at 3,770,000 bpd and declining 106,000 bpd since then. Related: US Shale: How Smoke And Mirrors Could Cost Investors Millions

The EIA had the Gulf of Mexico spiking up in April but falling right back in May. The BSEE data, like Texas, is always delayed but only by about four months.

The EIA admits that they show different data but tries to explain it here:

EIA reports show different aspects of U.S. oil production statistics and trends

By Ron Patterson

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  • K Yamaguchi on August 04 2015 said:
    Mr. Patterson,

    Do you think the 150,000 reduction in weekly production reported July 24 was a real reduction from prior week, or just another "correction" based on the drop in production for May vs. April?

    Trying to figure out if those reduction should be considered additive, or essentially the same adjustments.
  • gus on August 05 2015 said:
    I agree with the author. Today's number (9.46 million per day) is further indication that U.S. production peaked earlier this year. Even though the number is higher than last week's, it proves that last week's 9.41 number was not a fluke. We are definitely down from the 9.6 peak in the weekly numbers. These numbers don't jump around much. I would expect another 9.4 next week, or a 9.3. Meanwhile, I expect many commentators on the short side to keep saying "oil production still hasn't fallen" or even "oil production is rising", even though it likely peaked months ago and we are now seeing further proof in the gov't stats. The WTI price will keep jumping around in the short term because the dollars jumps around, and because the drop in production is somehow not visible enough for some people. If you want to sell your energy stocks at the worst possible time, now's the time.

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