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Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson is a retired computer engineer. He worked in Saudi Arabia for five years, two years at the Ghazlan Power Plant near Ras Tanura…

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The EIA’s International Energy Statistics

The EIA, a few days ago posted their International Energy Statistics. They publish lots of statistics here, but on a monthly basis. I only follow their production of world Crude Oil including Lease Condensate.

The data on all charts below is Crude + Condensate production through July 2014 and is in thousand barrels per day.

World C+C

World C+C production was up 168,000 bpd to 77,023,000 bpd. The high, so far, was in February at 77,409,000 bpd.

Non-OPEC C+C

Non-OPEC C+C was down 135,000 bpd from its high so far. It has been on a 9 month plateau high.

Non-OPEC C+C

That surge upward in world C+C production was, of course all US production. Without US production Non-OPEC production is 1,365,000 bpd below the peak in November, 2010 and is currently below the level hit on November, 2003. World C+C less US is 2,069,000 bpd below the peak of January 2011.

Related: GOP Has Big Plans For Energy, But Are The Numbers Right?

I believe that Non-OPEC production, less US, is well past its all-time high. I think we will see considerable decline in Non-OPEC less US production in 2015. It remains to be seen whether US production will keep Non-OPEC production increasing. But I am predicting that US production will not keep Non-OPEC production increasing past 2015.

The EIA C+C data above is through July while the MOMR Crude Only data is through September. (The MOMR with October data will be out Wednesday.) I have predicted world C+C to peak no later than next year, World peak still depends on what OPEC does. I believe OPEC will decline after 2015 also but that is just my guess.

China C+C

The biggest loser in July was China, down 175,000 bpd to 4,084,000 bpd.

Kazakhstan

The biggest gainer, outside OPEC was Kazakhstan, up 124,000 bpd to 1,641,000 bpd. The biggest OPEC C+C gainers in July was Libya, up 200,000 and Saudi Arabia, up 150,000 bpd. I will have the OPEC MOMR post on Wednesday, Nov. 12.

Russia

Russia is always of interest. Russia had a bad month in July, down 92,000 bpd to 10,003,000 bpd. Russia has since recovered and is producing around the same amount it produced earlier in the year. The Russian web site CDU TEK always has Russian C+C production about 400,000 bpd higher than the EIA reports. I have no idea why this is the case. Russia list daily production in thousands of tons per day. You must be registered to get their monthly and annual data. Their Registration Page is all in Russian with no translation button so I cannot figure it out.

Related: U.S. Petroleum Supply Update – Latest EIA Numbers

Eurasia + C&S America...

Half the world’s crude oil production is in decline, down 2,834,000 bpd since the peak January 2011. The chart is starting to look like the classic bell curve.

Middle East

And even the Middle East with 32 percent of world crude + condensate production may also have peaked, down 625,000 bpd since the peak in August 2011.

North America

But North America is booming. With about 18 percent of world’s C+C production it is keeping peak oil at bay for perhaps one more year.

By Ron Patterson

Source - http://peakoilbarrel.com 

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