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Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson is a retired computer engineer. He worked in Saudi Arabia for five years, two years at the Ghazlan Power Plant near Ras Tanura…

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U.S. Petroleum Supply Update – Latest EIA Numbers

The EIA just released their Petroleum Supply Monthly where they give their estimates of US crude production as well as the crude production for all states and territories through August 2014.

There was not much movement from anyone in August. Here are the biggest movers:

Change
Total USA 61 kbd
Texas 46 kbd
GOM 21 kbd
North Dakota 18 kbd
Oklahoma -6 kbd
Colorado -9 kbd
Alaska -24 kbd

The data is in kbd with the last data point August 2014.

USA

I have started the data in January 2009 in order to get a better picture of what is really happening.

Related: Is President Obama Manipulating Gasoline Prices?

USA Offshore

The above chart is the combined production of both GOM and Pacific offshore.

The EIA is predicting Offshore production to reach 2 million barrels per day by 2016, I really don’t think it is going to make it. They are counting on a lot of new offshore fields that are coming on line to bring it up to that level. While that is happening, what they have underestimated is the very high decline rate of these deep water fields.

While the Petroleum Supply Monthly only has data through August, the EIA’s Monthly Energy Review has data through September and has USA lower 48 crude production up 155 kbd and Alaska up another 65 kbd for a total of 220 kbd. Of course that is just an estimate as the states have not yet reported their September production numbers.

Alaska

This is Alaska since the opening of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline in KBD, last data point is September 2014.

US total petroleum liquids consumption has been on a bumpy plateau since 2009 at around 19 million barrels per day. The last data point is September, 2014.

Consumption

North Dakota publishes a Daily Activity Report Index of all oil patch activity. It looks like this:

Daily Activity Report

You can click on any particular day and get a PDF file of everything that happened on that particular day. That includes permits issued, permits cancelled, wells released from “tight hole” (confidential) status, confidential wells plugged, wells approved for “tight hole” status and a lot of other information. But one important thing you do get is “Producing Wells Completed”.

Some days there are no producing wells completed but most days there is at least one or two, and on some days they list over twenty. Confidential wells are not included in producing wells completed and some months there are a few wells listed without giving production numbers. But every month there are about 100 wells listed, give or take a few. So note: This is not all wells. It is likely about 60 to 80% of all wells completed in any given month.

Copying and pasting the data into Excel and working it into a compliable spreadsheet is a very time consuming job but I did it for the past five months, June through October. Here are the results.

Average 24 Hour Production

The actual average numbers for the first 24 hour barrels per day for all North Dakota:

June 1,382
July 1,695
Aug. 1,196
Sep. 1,301
Oct. 1,188

Percent Water Cut

Related: Why The Current “Oil Glut” Could Lead To A Price Spike

I think this chart is very important. Water cut was only increasing slightly until September and October. In those two months it has jumped significantly. The actual average water cut for all North Dakota is as follows:

June 51.38%
July 51.5%
Aug. 52.02%
Sep. 54.23%
Oct. 60.73%

Or if you would like all the numbers:

Numbers

This is all the wells reported in the five months examined. Billings and Burke were not included in the charts but were included in all averages.

By Ron Patterson

Source - http://peakoilbarrel.com/

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