• 3 minutes Oil Price Could Fall To $30 If Global Deal Not Extended
  • 8 minutes Why Is America (Texas) Burning Millions of Dollars Per Day Of Natural Gas?
  • 11 minutes Is $60/Bbl WTI still considered a break even for Shale Oil
  • 15 minutes CNN:America's oil boom will break more records this year. OPEC is stuck in retreat
  • 23 mins The Pope: "Climate change ... doomsday predictions can no longer be met with irony or disdain."
  • 2 hours Hormuz and surrounding waters: Energy Threats to the World: Oil, LNG, shipping markets digest new risks after Strait of Hormuz attack
  • 6 hours As Iran Nuclear Deal Flounders, France Turns To Saudi For Oil
  • 1 hour The Magic and Wonders of US Shale Supply: Keeping energy price shock minimised: US oil supply keeping lid on prices despite global risks: IEA chief
  • 11 hours Middle East on brink: Oil tankers attacked off Oman
  • 3 hours (Un)expectedly: UK Court Sets Assange U.S. Extradition Hearing For February 2020
  • 5 hours Never Knew Gasoline Prices were this important!
  • 19 hours Middle East Attack Jolts Oil-Import Dependent Asia
  • 2 hours Russia removes special military forces from Venezuela . . . . Maduro gone by September ? . . . Oil starts to flow ? Think so . .
  • 22 hours Magic of Shale: EXPORTS!! Crude Exporters Navigate Gulf Coast Terminal Constraints
  • 21 hours Emmissions up, renewables nowhere
  • 24 hours The Cards Are On The Table: China Willing To Meet Reasonable Rare Earth Demand From Other Countries
  • 22 hours Canada Issues Updated NGV Roadmap
  • 22 hours Only one country is contemplating destroying its own resource sector: Canada
Alt Text

U.S. Total Oil Output Poised To Set New 2019 Record

US oil production keeps accelerating…

Alt Text

Putin: Russia Is Fine With $60 Oil

Russia doesn’t need oil prices…

Alt Text

Goldman: No One Knows What’s Going On In Oil Markets

The opaque supply situation in…

Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson is a retired computer engineer. He worked in Saudi Arabia for five years, two years at the Ghazlan Power Plant near Ras Tanura…

More Info

Trending Discussions

U.S. Petroleum Supply Update – Latest EIA Numbers

The EIA just released their Petroleum Supply Monthly where they give their estimates of US crude production as well as the crude production for all states and territories through August 2014.

There was not much movement from anyone in August. Here are the biggest movers:

Change
Total USA 61 kbd
Texas 46 kbd
GOM 21 kbd
North Dakota 18 kbd
Oklahoma -6 kbd
Colorado -9 kbd
Alaska -24 kbd

The data is in kbd with the last data point August 2014.

USA

I have started the data in January 2009 in order to get a better picture of what is really happening.

Related: Is President Obama Manipulating Gasoline Prices?

USA Offshore

The above chart is the combined production of both GOM and Pacific offshore.

The EIA is predicting Offshore production to reach 2 million barrels per day by 2016, I really don’t think it is going to make it. They are counting on a lot of new offshore fields that are coming on line to bring it up to that level. While that is happening, what they have underestimated is the very high decline rate of these deep water fields.

While the Petroleum Supply Monthly only has data through August, the EIA’s Monthly Energy Review has data through September and has USA lower 48 crude production up 155 kbd and Alaska up another 65 kbd for a total of 220 kbd. Of course that is just an estimate as the states have not yet reported their September production numbers.

Alaska

This is Alaska since the opening of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline in KBD, last data point is September 2014.

US total petroleum liquids consumption has been on a bumpy plateau since 2009 at around 19 million barrels per day. The last data point is September, 2014.

Consumption

North Dakota publishes a Daily Activity Report Index of all oil patch activity. It looks like this:

Daily Activity Report

You can click on any particular day and get a PDF file of everything that happened on that particular day. That includes permits issued, permits cancelled, wells released from “tight hole” (confidential) status, confidential wells plugged, wells approved for “tight hole” status and a lot of other information. But one important thing you do get is “Producing Wells Completed”.

Some days there are no producing wells completed but most days there is at least one or two, and on some days they list over twenty. Confidential wells are not included in producing wells completed and some months there are a few wells listed without giving production numbers. But every month there are about 100 wells listed, give or take a few. So note: This is not all wells. It is likely about 60 to 80% of all wells completed in any given month.

Copying and pasting the data into Excel and working it into a compliable spreadsheet is a very time consuming job but I did it for the past five months, June through October. Here are the results.

Average 24 Hour Production

The actual average numbers for the first 24 hour barrels per day for all North Dakota:

June 1,382
July 1,695
Aug. 1,196
Sep. 1,301
Oct. 1,188

Percent Water Cut

Related: Why The Current “Oil Glut” Could Lead To A Price Spike

I think this chart is very important. Water cut was only increasing slightly until September and October. In those two months it has jumped significantly. The actual average water cut for all North Dakota is as follows:

June 51.38%
July 51.5%
Aug. 52.02%
Sep. 54.23%
Oct. 60.73%

Or if you would like all the numbers:

Numbers

This is all the wells reported in the five months examined. Billings and Burke were not included in the charts but were included in all averages.

By Ron Patterson

Source - http://peakoilbarrel.com/

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:




Download The Free Oilprice App Today

Back to homepage

Trending Discussions


Leave a comment

Leave a comment





Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News