Total U.S. oil production around 2025 will almost equal the combined production of Russia and Saudi Arabia, Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), told Turkish state-run Anadolu Agency on Friday.
The huge growth in U.S. shale production will completely change the balance of oil markets, Birol told the news agency.
The IEA’s Oil 2018 report from earlier this year sees the United States dominating the global oil supply growth over the next five years.
OPEC capacity will grow only modestly by 2023, while most of the growth will come from non-OPEC countries, led by the United States, “which is becoming ever more dominant in the global oil market,” the IEA said.
Driven by light tight oil, U.S. production is seen growing by 3.7 million bpd by 2023, more than half of the total global production capacity growth of 6.4 million bpd expected by then. Total liquids production in the United States—including conventional oil, shale, and natural gas liquids—will reach nearly 17 million bpd by 2023, “easily making it the top global producer, and nearly matching the level of its domestic products demand,” the IEA said in March this year.
“The United States is set to put its stamp on global oil markets for the next five years,” Birol said back then.
The U.S. is currently pumping oil at record levels of more than 11 million bpd, while Russia and Saudi Arabia—which also hit record highs in October and November, respectively—will curtail 230,000 bpd and 322,000 bpd of their production in the first six months of 2019, respectively.
In its December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects U.S. crude oil production to have averaged 11.5 million bpd in November, up by 150,000 bpd from October, thanks to platforms resuming normal operations after hurricane-related outages in October. The EIA sees U.S. crude oil production averaging 10.9 million bpd this year, jumping from 9.4 million bpd in 2017. The forecast for next year’s U.S. crude oil production currently stands at 12.1 million bpd.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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