• 4 minutes Energy Armageddon
  • 6 minutes How Far Have We Really Gotten With Alternative Energy
  • 10 minutes Russia Says Europe Will Struggle To Replace Its Oil Products
  • 3 hours Reality catching up with EV forecasts
  • 4 days "Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Grinding Toward Summer Highs Despite Huge Short Interest" by James Hyerczyk & REUTERS on NatGas
  • 4 days A Somewhat Realistic View of the Near Future for Electric Vehicles Worldwide
  • 9 days The Federal Reserve and Money...Aspects which are not widely known
  • 14 days US Oil Independence is a myth and will always be a myth
  • 14 days Oil Stocks, Market Direction, Bitcoin, Minerals, Gold, Silver - Technical Trading <--- Chris Vermeulen & Gareth Soloway weigh in
  • 17 days "Biden Is Running U.S. Energy Security Into The Ground" by Irina Slav
  • 17 days *****5 STARS - "The Markets are Rigged" by The Corbett Report
The Future Of U.S. Offshore Oil Drilling Hangs In The Balance

The Future Of U.S. Offshore Oil Drilling Hangs In The Balance

The Biden Administration is finalizing…

Upstream Spending To Rise To $485 Billion In 2023

Upstream Spending To Rise To $485 Billion In 2023

In its 2023 outlook, Energy…

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews. 

More Info

Premium Content

Citi: Fears Of Oil Supply Shortage Are Exaggerated, But…

  • Citi: Russian supply loss could be lower than feared.
  • Citi's Ed Morse: COVID lockdowns in China help lower demand.
  • The world will have more than enough oil in coming months according to Citigroup analysts.

The world will have more than enough oil because the Russian supply loss could be lower than feared. But it will also have enough oil simply because demand growth could slow down with higher prices and COVID lockdowns in China, analysts at Citigroup say.  

“Even as Russian production slides and OPEC+ actually reduces total flows to markets, a slowdown in global growth is reducing oil demand growth, and the IEA release of 220mln barrels of oil between now and October point to market weakness and inventory builds ahead,” Citi analyst Edward Morse said in a note carried by Proactive Investors.

Moreover, Citi believes that the fears of a loss of up to 3 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil supply are exaggerated.

“Of 1.9-m b/d of European seaborne exports of crude oil, around 900-k b/d is being pushed to other markets such as India or will likely stay in some European markets with limited access to non-Russian oil,” Citi’s analysts wrote.


Therefore, the world will have more than enough oil in coming months, the analysts noted.

“Without a deeper Russian cut, which is possible, the numbers add up to much more than enough oil,” according to Citi.  

Citi’s view is contrary to other analysts and investment banks which see severe constraints in oil supply.


Commodities have room to soar by another 40 percent on top of the gains in recent months, as investors could pour more money into raw materials as a hedge against the highest inflation in 40 years, JPMorgan Chase & Co says.

There is “absolutely” a supply problem in the oil sector, Jeff Currie, global head of commodities at Goldman Sachs, told Bloomberg on Wednesday.

There are broad-based supply constraints in oil producers, particularly non-core OPEC, Currie said. Every producer except for Saudi Arabia and the UAE is producing less today than they were in 2020, he added. Throw in the Russian shock, and the supply constraints are the most severe in decades, since the 1970s, according to Currie.

The record release of U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) “is still insufficient to be able to deal with the scale of the problem,” he noted.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:

Download The Free Oilprice App Today

Back to homepage



Leave a comment

Leave a comment

EXXON Mobil -0.35
Open57.81 Trading Vol.6.96M Previous Vol.241.7B
BUY 57.15
Sell 57.00
Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News