The North Dakota Industrial Commission is out with the Bakken November Production Data and the North Dakota Production Data.
Bakken production was up 5,293 BP/D while total North Dakota was up 3,691 BP/D. Total North Dakota oil production is up 901 barrels per day from two months ago, October production.
Total wells producing was up by 110 in the Bakken but only up by 63 in North Dakota. That means a lot of conventional wells were shut down.
From the Director’s Cut:
Oct Sweet Crude Price = $68.94/barrel
Nov Sweet Crude Price = $60.61/barrel
Dec Sweet Crude Price = $40.74/barrel
Today Sweet Crude Price = $29.25/barrel (lowest since December 2008) (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
Oct rig count 191
Nov rig count 188
Dec rig count 181
Today’s rig count is 156 (lowest since Oct 2010)(all-time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)
The statewide rig count is down 28% from the high and in the five most active counties rig count is down as follows:
Divide -62% (high was 3/2013)
Dunn -39% (high was 6/2012)
McKenzie -23% (high was 1/2014)
Mountrail -32% (high was 6/2011)
Williams -28% (high was 10/2014)
The drilling rig count dropped 3 from October to November, 7 more from November to December, and has since fallen 25 more from December to today. The number of well completions decreased from 145(final) in October to 39(preliminary) in November.
Oil price is by far the biggest driver behind the slow-down. Operators report postponing completion work to avoid high initial oil production at very low prices and achieve NDIC gas capture goals. There were no major precipitation events, but there were 11 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work) and 7 days with temperatures below -10F.
The drillers far outpaced completion crews in November. At the end of November there were about 775 wells waiting on completion services, an increase of 125.
Crude oil take away capacity is expected to remain adequate as long as rail deliveries to coastal refineries keep growing.
Rig count in the Williston Basin is falling rapidly. Utilization rate for rigs capable of 20,000+ feet is currently about 80%, and for shallow well rigs (7,000 feet or less) about 50%.
145 well completions in October led to a decline of 2,790 barrels per day, (revised) while 39 completions in November led to an increase of 3,691 barrels per day. That math makes no sense. But Bakken “wells producing” increased by 110. How did that happen? Bakken “wells producing” increased by 118 in October.
There are now 775 wells awaiting fracking crews, an increase of 125 in one month. What will happen to North Dakota production in the next few months becomes a real guessing game. Nothing can be predicted by the number of active drilling rigs and we have no idea what the fracking crews will be doing.
One thing for sure is production growth has dramatically slowed in the last couple of months, (circled above). I expect that slowdown to continue to get even slower. But because of the huge inventory of uncompleted wells the immediate future of Bakken production becomes a real mystery.
That’s it folks, a very short but I believe a very important post. I will have a post on North Dakota production by county sometime in the next two weeks.
By Ron Patterson
Source - http://peakoilbarrel.com/
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