• 16 hours Oil Prices Rise After U.S. API Reports Strong Crude Inventory Draw
  • 17 hours Oil Gains Spur Growth In Canada’s Oil Cities
  • 18 hours China To Take 5% Of Rosneft’s Output In New Deal
  • 18 hours UAE Oil Giant Seeks Partnership For Possible IPO
  • 19 hours Planting Trees Could Cut Emissions As Much As Quitting Oil
  • 20 hours VW Fails To Secure Critical Commodity For EVs
  • 21 hours Enbridge Pipeline Expansion Finally Approved
  • 22 hours Iraqi Forces Seize Control Of North Oil Co Fields In Kirkuk
  • 23 hours OPEC Oil Deal Compliance Falls To 86%
  • 2 days U.S. Oil Production To Increase in November As Rig Count Falls
  • 2 days Gazprom Neft Unhappy With OPEC-Russia Production Cut Deal
  • 2 days Disputed Venezuelan Vote Could Lead To More Sanctions, Clashes
  • 2 days EU Urges U.S. Congress To Protect Iran Nuclear Deal
  • 2 days Oil Rig Explosion In Louisiana Leaves 7 Injured, 1 Still Missing
  • 2 days Aramco Says No Plans To Shelve IPO
  • 4 days Trump Passes Iran Nuclear Deal Back to Congress
  • 5 days Texas Shutters More Coal-Fired Plants
  • 5 days Oil Trading Firm Expects Unprecedented U.S. Crude Exports
  • 5 days UK’s FCA Met With Aramco Prior To Proposing Listing Rule Change
  • 5 days Chevron Quits Australian Deepwater Oil Exploration
  • 5 days Europe Braces For End Of Iran Nuclear Deal
  • 5 days Renewable Energy Startup Powering Native American Protest Camp
  • 6 days Husky Energy Set To Restart Pipeline
  • 6 days Russia, Morocco Sign String Of Energy And Military Deals
  • 6 days Norway Looks To Cut Some Of Its Generous Tax Breaks For EVs
  • 6 days China Set To Continue Crude Oil Buying Spree, IEA Says
  • 6 days India Needs Help To Boost Oil Production
  • 6 days Shell Buys One Of Europe’s Largest EV Charging Networks
  • 6 days Oil Throwback: BP Is Bringing Back The Amoco Brand
  • 6 days Libyan Oil Output Covers 25% Of 2017 Budget Needs
  • 6 days District Judge Rules Dakota Access Can Continue Operating
  • 7 days Surprise Oil Inventory Build Shocks Markets
  • 7 days France’s Biggest Listed Bank To Stop Funding Shale, Oil Sands Projects
  • 7 days Syria’s Kurds Aim To Control Oil-Rich Areas
  • 7 days Chinese Teapots Create $5B JV To Compete With State Firms
  • 7 days Oil M&A Deals Set To Rise
  • 7 days South Sudan Tightens Oil Industry Security
  • 8 days Over 1 Million Bpd Remain Offline In Gulf Of Mexico
  • 8 days Turkmenistan To Spend $93-Billion On Oil And Gas Sector
  • 8 days Indian Hydrocarbon Projects Get $300 Billion Boost Over 10 Years
The Next Big Digital Disruption In Energy

The Next Big Digital Disruption In Energy

Blockchain technology is transforming the…

Goldman Sachs: Inventory Drawdowns Will Not Continue

Goldman Sachs: Inventory Drawdowns Will Not Continue

Goldman Sachs has reported that…

Oil Prices Rebound As IEA Claims Oil Has Bottomed

In its latest monthly market report released early on Friday, the International Energy Agency forecast that oil prices may have bottomed as shrinking supplies outside OPEC and disruptions inside the group erode the global surplus. This comes just one month after it had a far gloomier assessment of oil prices, warned on excess supply, and asked if the market was witnessing a "false dawn."

“There are signs that prices might have bottomed out,” the Paris-based adviser said. "For prices there may be light at the end of what has been a long, dark tunnel” as market forces are “working their magic and higher-cost producers are cutting output."

It predicted that production outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will decline by 750,000 barrels a day this year, or 150,000 barrels a day more than estimated last month, the agency said. Markets are also being supported by output losses in Iraq and Nigeria, as well as Iran’s unexpectedly slow return to production following the end of international sanctions, Bloomberg reports.

As a reminder, on February 9, the IEA said "supply may exceed consumption by an average of 1.75 million barrels a day in the period, compared with an estimate of 1.5 million last month." Curiously since then prices are far higher, and are now pushing into territory where even shale companies are considering resuming production.

As shown in the chart below, oil prices have recovered 50 percent from the 12-year lows reached in early February when news of possible oil production cuts by OPEC unleashed a dramatic rally; instead all that was unveiled was a tentative production "freeze", one which may never happen as Iran has sternly refused to comply with the term. This “freeze” which caps Russian and Saudi production at already record high levels, while currently supporting prices, is unlikely to have a substantial impact on markets in the first half of the year, the IEA said.

Related: Is This The Next Offshore Sweet Spot For Big Oil?

(Click to enlarge)

As Bloomberg writes, the agency’s view on prices is a shift from last month’s report, in which it said that crude could sink further as the market remained “awash in oil.” Brent futures traded at about $40 a barrel in London on Friday. In retrospect, this appears like nothing more than a case of the market making the news, and in this case, analysis.

Still, the outlook for the balance of supply against demand in the first half is “essentially unchanged” from last month, the IEA said. World oil consumption will increase by 1.2 million barrels a day, helping to reduce the global surplus from 1.7 million barrels a day in the first half to 200,000 a day in the last six months of the year. Last month it projected the second-half surplus would be 300,000 a day. The agency repeated that it could lower the demand estimate as the price recovery curbs U.S. appetite for gasoline.

In other words, everyone is guessing not only what supply will do, but when demand will finally come back; for now there hasn't been a notable change in either, and in fact in the last DOE number, U.S. producers actually saw a pick up in production.

Related: Exposing The Oil Glut: Where Are The 550 Million Missing Barrels?!

More interestingly, and related to our report earlier this week about some 550 million "missing" barrels of oil, the IEA increased its estimate of oil in floating storage/transit for 2015, moving more than a qtr of the volume it had previously categorized as "miscellaneous-to-balance" in its supply/demand tables. The revision to the quarterly figures in latest monthly report issued today shows "a portion of these volumes were misallocated in 2015." As a result, the IEA now sees 72 million bbl of crude stored in tankers at end-Feb., up ~17 million bbl from a year ago; this includes 42 million bbl of crude, condensate in Iranian tankers.

Despite the adjustment, this still means that there is nearly half a billion barrels of oil "out there, somewhere" which remain unaccounted for.

So while the IEA report served to boost the price of oil, roughly at the same time Goldman released its own report, reiterating a well-known warning on inventory constraints, and repeating that oil prices may drop "sharply lower" as US "storage saturation" is reached:

While supply responses and US stock draws on the horizon suggest price lows may have been set, the risk that US storage saturation pushes prices sharply lower in coming weeks remains high in our view. Current US inventory builds are setting new record highs for storage utilization and we expect these builds to continue through April. Further, the risk of petroleum product storage saturation pushing refinery runs lower in the face of strong imports could more than offset US production declines.

Related: Why Saudi Arabia Has No Intention To End The Oil Glut

(Click to enlarge)

For now the market continues to ignore the near-term fundamentals, and to hope that production cuts and demand increases will normalize the crude market, even as key shale companies made it clear that once oil hits $40, production is going back on line. As of this moment, crude is right around that level.

By Zerohedge

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:



Join the discussion | Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment

Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News