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Technical Review of the Energy Markets – 25th April 2013

RBOB bounced as hoped to reach resistance at 275.17/276.15. We said this should cap the move & it did but today we are trying to push higher to target strong resistance at 279.74/280.47 & a probably higher for the day. A move higher later in the week could test stronger resistance at 282.65/283.65. Exit all longs here with a high for the week expected & perhaps try shorts with a stop above 285.65. 275.17 is now support but below 274.80 risks a return to 273.06 & below here a retest of 270.50/00 which is still good support today for a buying opportunity but any longs need a stop below 269.15. Failure here could keep the pressure on for 268.32/08 then look for 266.98 below.

Natural Gas - We stated yesterday that the daily outlook has now turned negative so a bounce in to the end of the week should present a chance to enter medium term shorts. We bounced from 4.216/212 to reach resistance at 4.257 & topped out just below 4.295/300 before taking a dive to our next support at 4.145/121. This is holding so far & as stated yesterday we could see a low for the week here & can try longs with a stop below 4.084 for 4.047/025, possibly 4.004/000. Resistance today at 4.212/216 could hold a bounce so we can take at least some profit on longs. However above here look for 4.257 then 4.295/300 to exit any remaining longs. Any shorts need a stop above 4.319 for 4.350 & above here we could retest highs at 4.429.

Brent Crude daily picture is more positive as stated yesterday & we broke 100.35/45 resistance to hit our 102.10/40 target nicely. We expected a high here for the day & this has held so far but any shorts need a stop above 103.00 for 104.27, possibly 105.30. Exit any longs here & try shorts, adding up to 106.00 with a stop above 106.50. Failure to hold above 102.00 could trigger profit taking down to 101.60 & then 100.50/30. Watch for a bounce from here but longs need a stop below 99.90 for 99.05.

WTI Crude as stated yesterday turned positive & we tore through 90.20/30 to hit our upper target of 91.70 which held the move nicely. However we are trying to push above here now to test a 1 year trend line at 92.14/22 & we do look a bit over stretched in the short term so watch for profit taking here. If the markets surprises us with another break higher look for a test of the 100 day moving average at 92.58 & possibly tough resistance above at 92.90/93.10. This should be as far as we can go before hitting selling pressure so try shorts with a stop above 93.50. Support at 91.70 but below 91.30 could trigger some stops & keep the pressure on for 90.30/20. Look for a low for the day here & a good bounce but longs need a stop below 89.90.

By. Jason Sen




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