Natural Gas has struggled at 3.965-3.976 for the past 3 days. We had warned the market should run out of momentum here but we do need a stop loss on shorts above 4.050 for 4.413/414 as the next upside target.
Failure to break higher in this severely over bought market should see us drift back to 3.924/917. Bears need the market back below here or we risk another move towards this week’s high. If we do continue lower, look for another test of 3.869/855 support & a good chance of a low for the day again. However a break of 3.834 could keep the pressure on for excellent support and a buying opportunity at 3.778/777.
RBOB Gasoline dipped lower but only to 302 and shot higher. We unexpectedly broke resistance at 309.90 & if we hold above here look for 312.08/25 to be tested again. A break higher does look possible today for 314.25 on the way to 315.51/316.53 but this is tough resistance so we look for prices to halt here. Stops on shorts would be needed above 319.00.
Below 308.80 could see us slide back to 304.71 support. Any longs here need a stop below 303 for 302 & then 299.52 support. If this fails perhaps next week, we could fill the roll over gap at 292.12 but we are not expected to fall any further and this could be a very good buying opportunity with the end of the correction expected.
Gasoil was predicted to bottom out yesterday at 897.00, the 4 year trend line support and expected low for the 6 week down trend here. We have suffered sever losses but are now oversold so it is too risky to continue to run shorts. We already reached our first target of 906.40 & got close to 912.68 as we topped at 910.25. So above 910.50 today we look for 912.68 with 917.75 the target above.
Back below 906 however could see 901 & below here risks another test of 897/896. It should be worth attempting longs but we need a wide stop below 892 as this is such a major long term support area. A break then spells serious trouble for this market and could then target 884.75.
By. Jason Sen