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The Key Q3 Economic Data So Far

The Key Q3 Economic Data So Far

And there is an exciting day in store on this final day of Q3, with all manner of information to digest. Japan kicked things off overnight, and has maintained its bearish theme with industrial production down 0.5 percent in August versus the prior month. Onward to Europe, and German retail sales came in softer than expected at -0.4 percent for August (MoM), while its unemployment rate held at 6.4 percent for September, a multi-decade low. Italy’s unemployment rate is gradually improving, but still elevated at 11.9 percent. This all means that Eurozone unemployment on aggregate remains at 11 percent…down from a record of 12.2 percent, but still pretty darn high.

(Click to enlarge)

Eurozone unemployment, % (source: investing.com)

A revision to UK economic growth has seen Q2 hold at +0.7 percent versus the prior quarter. Meanwhile, Eurozone inflation has fallen into deflationary territory once more for the first time since March, dropping 0.1 YoY for September. Related: Support For OPEC Production Cut Is Increasing

Turning to the U.S., and the precursor (or thunder-stealer) of the official unemployment report on Friday, the ADP report, has yielded job creation of 200,000 for September, slightly above consensus of 194k. The Chicago PMI lights the fuse this morning for the explosion of global PMI manufacturing data out starting tonight; the regional Chicago number sets the mood ahead of tomorrow’s national release, while global numbers are released later, kicked off tonight by China.

Honing in on energy markets, and the crude complex is looking a little subdued ahead of the weekly EIA inventory report. Last night’s API report yielded a huge 4.6 million barrel build to crude stocks, adjusting expectations ahead of today’s numbers. In other energy-related bits and bobs, Petrobras has raised fuel prices for the first time in almost a year, to help boost revenues amid lower oil prices, a shrinking economy and weakening currency. Meanwhile, EIA has published the below charts to illustrate how decreasing well costs are helping to spur on shale gas development in China. The government is also continuing to subsidize its exploration, with another year to run on its $1.80/MMBtu subsidy program for commercial production of shale gas. These subsidies have been extended to 2020, but at a lower rate. Related: Germany Now Faced With Thousands Of Aging Wind Farms

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Finally, an article today highlights that Iranian condensate exports have hit a 2015 high to China, topping 200,000 bpd in September. ClipperData shows total exports to China at 445,000 bpd this month with just today left to go. Related: What Oil Investors Can Learn From Gold

(Click to enlarge)

Total Iranian exports to China (source: ClipperData)

By Matt Smith

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