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Bearish EIA Data Can’t Keep Oil From Rallying

A somewhat bearish EIA inventory…

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Crude Rises Ahead Of Non-OPEC Meeting

Oil prices rose on Thursday,…

The Last Three Years Of Global Crude Oil Production

The Last Three Years Of Global Crude Oil Production

The EIA publishes every possible energy stat for the USA and hardly anything for the rest of the world. Well, anything current for the rest of the world anyway. Their International Energy Statistics report is already five full months behind and working on six. December 2014 is the last international oil production data we have.

Anyway during this lull in other data I decided to look at the last three years of international data, from December 2011 to December 2014. All data is in thousand barrels per day.

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World C+C production was flat for most of 2012 and 2013 but in late 2013 production took off and has increased by about 3 million barrels per day above the average for 2012 and 2013. December C+C production was 79,300,000 BPD.

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While total C+C production has increased by 3,000,000 BPD over the last three years the top ten gainers have increased just over twice as much, 6,200,000 BPD. Related: Three Eagle Ford Stocks Worth A Look

And just who were the big C+C production increasers for the last three years. Keep in mind this is the total change, or increase, over the last three years, not total production.

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The largest gainer, by a wide margin, was the USA. Iraq and Canada were runners up and the rest were also rans.

Almost everyone else had declines.

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Here are the 20 biggest decliners. Iran of course declined the most but surprisingly, the second largest decliner was Mexico, not Libya. Saudi, the fourth largest decliner has, since December, increased production by about half a million barrels per day.

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World C+C production minus the top ten gainers has declined by 3,100,000 over the three years 2012 through 2014.

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Just for kicks I decided to include production change per geological area over the three years, 2012 through 2014. As you can see it is no contest, North America wins by a large margin. However, if we had the last 5 months data, this chart would look somewhat different as the Middle East has had a pretty good increase over that period. Related: Petrobras To Help Pemex Explore For Oil

And on another subject under the “Do You Believe This” category:

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This is the US weekly C+C production for the last 52 weeks with the last data point May 29th. And no, I flat don’t believe it. Here are a few reasons why.

Crude Oil Carload Update

The AAR also reported U.S. Class I railroads originated 113,089 carloads of crude oil in the first quarter of 2015, down 17,982 carloads or 13.7 percent from the fourth quarter of 2014.

First Quarter crude oil shipped by rail is down 13.7 percent from the first quarter of 2014.

Sikorsky to Cut 1,400 Jobs, Citing Falling Oil Production

Sikorsky Aircraft Corp. says it’s cutting 1,400 jobs in the coming year as the helicopter manufacturer faces declining demand for shuttling workers to offshore oil platforms.

A helicopter maker cuts employment by 9.2 percent due to falling offshore oil production. Of course this is all over the world but definitely includes the Gulf of Mexico.

And our neighbor to the north:

Canada’s crude oil production fell in May to lowest level in almost 2 years, Barclays says

Investment bank Barclays says a “perfect storm” of events including wildfires and upgrader maintenance in Alberta are expected to have cut average national production to 3.98 million barrels of oil a day in May after peaking at an average of 4.59 million barrels a day in January.

In May Canadian crude production was 610,000 BPD below January production. But apparently even January production was not all that great.

Alberta oil production dropped by 8% between Q3 2014 and Q1 2015

Production of conventional oil and gas in Alberta — excluding oil sands projects – fell by 8% between the third quarter of 2014 and the first quarter of 2015, when oil prices crashed as a result of OPEC’s fight for global market share.

According to research firm CanOils, production fell by 56,880 barrels of oil equivalent a day during the period, primarily because of falling global commodity prices, though pipeline constraints and maintenance also played a role.

Alberta conventional liquids fell by 56,880 barrels per day during the first quarter 2015 compared to the third quarter 2014. And this was before the wildfires. Related: Cold Shoulder For Russia Could Hint At OPEC Decision June 5th

One more point:

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Annual net imports of crude oil plus petroleum products had been on almost a linear decline until late 2014. Now imports have almost flattened out indicating a decline in US crude oil production.

By Ron Patterson

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