The EIA has recently published their International Energy Statistics. Their stats include all liquids such as NGLs, biofuels and even refinery process gain. But I only track actual oil. The EIA does not track “Crude Only” so we are forced to track what they do track which is Crude + Condensate.
The EIA is about four months behind with their world petroleum data. All data in this report has data through August, 2014 and is in thousand barrels per day.
World C+C production was down 124,000 barrels per day in August. But according to the IEA it will be up considerably more in September.
Non OPEC production shot up in November, 2013 but has made no progress since. Though US production has continued to climb, declines in the rest of the world have kept it from increasing.
Since that date, November 2013, US production is up 655,000 barrels per day through August.
But since that same date last November the rest of non-OPEC is down 920,000 barrels per day. Non OPEC less USA is down 1,665,000 barrels per day since peaking in November, 2010.
The North Sea, the combined production of Denmark, Norway and the UK, halted its decline in late 2012 but it now looks like it has started to decline again.
Mexico is always interesting. They halted their decline in 2009 and held that plateau for about three and one half years. But production has dropped 200,000 bpd since they fell off that plateau.
Russia is the world’s largest producer of Crude + Condensate.
Here the EIA and JODI data is through August while the CDU TEK data is through Septmber. The CDU TEK numbers were in tons. I used 7.2 barrels per ton to convert to tons to barrels.
In order to get a better idea of what is happening in Russia I show only the last 20 months of production numbers. I have only January through September of the CDU TEK numbers, Russia’s official web site. They show only daily production so I have to average it to get monthly numbers. But I stopped collecting after September because I find the data worthless.
Everyone agrees July was a bad month for Russia. Wildfires closed down some pipelines. But Russia says they more than recovered in August. They have the August numbers 10,000 bpd above June. The EIA has Russian August numbers about 40,000 bpd be below June and JODI has them 64,000 bpd above their June production.
I don’t think much of the JODI numbers and even less of the CDU TEK numbers. Some may complain about the EIA numbers but they are the best we have regardless of their shortcomings.
Crude oil production in other nations of interest:
I believe China, the world’s fourth largest producer, has peaked. Any increase in consumption in China will have to come from imports.
C+C production in Canada, the world’s fifth largest producer, has slowed. Canada’s peak depends entirely on the price of oil. If the price of oil goes up then Canada’s production will likely continue, though at a slow pace. But if prices stay low I expect Canada’s production to begin to decline.
Colombia had a surge beginning in late 2007 but production seems to have peaked there also.
India seems to be having production problems as of late. With India’s population and economic problems they can ill afford a drop in oil production.
I have updated the pages Non-OPEC Charts and World Crude Oil Production by Geographical Area with the August production numbers.
By Ron Patterson
Source - http://peakoilbarrel.com/
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