• 2 minutes Oil Price Could Fall To $30 If Global Deal Not Extended
  • 5 minutes Middle East on brink: Oil tankers attacked off Oman
  • 8 minutes CNN:America's oil boom will break more records this year. OPEC is stuck in retreat
  • 15 mins Emissions Need To Be Halved To Avoid 3C Warming
  • 3 hours The Pope: "Climate change ... doomsday predictions can no longer be met with irony or disdain."
  • 12 hours Hormuz and surrounding waters: Energy Threats to the World: Oil, LNG, shipping markets digest new risks after Strait of Hormuz attack
  • 1 hour Solar Panels at 26 cents per watt
  • 4 hours Coal Boom in Asia is Real and a Long Trend
  • 8 hours Pioneer CEO Said U.S. Oil Production would be up to 15 mm bbls/day NOW if we had the pipelines. Permian pipelines STARTING Q3
  • 13 hours OPEC, GEO-POLITICS & OIL SUPPLY & PRICES
  • 7 hours The Magic and Wonders of US Shale Supply: Keeping energy price shock minimised: US oil supply keeping lid on prices despite global risks: IEA chief
  • 11 hours Trudeau approves Trans Mountain Pipeline
  • 13 hours The Plastics Problem
  • 6 hours US to become net oil exporter in November: EIA
  • 4 hours US Shale Drilling lacks regulatory body.
  • 5 hours Huge UK Gas Discovery
  • 5 hours Ireland To Ban New Petrol And Diesel Vehicles From 2030
Alt Text

Lithium Plunging As Chinese EV Production Slows

China’s electric car subsidy changes,…

Alt Text

Vanadium Spikes On New Chinese Regulations

A new regulatory measure in…

Business Insider

Business Insider

Business Insider is one of the leading Business and finance news sites online.

More Info

Trending Discussions

Despite High Prices - There is no Bubble in Commodities

High prices do not mean a bubbles. High prices are just high prices. Humans are horrible at best in predicting either the frequency or the magnitude of such moves, yet novices (and some pros) are dazzled and entertained with the white noise of predictions. Don't be one of them.

Prediction as an art in the US is miserably unsuccessful, and unfortunately we have to deal with the endless barrage of prediction that floods our senses via social media. That is the downside of the ease of internet publishing for sure.

If you make the mistake of reading some of the recent articles that I've seen stating that we have a bubble in commodities, you may sell your longs fearing that we have put in the tops for these markets. Don't be fooled and get psyched out of your long positions. I believe it was Paul Tudor Jones who said, 'prices move first, and the fundamentals follow." As long as the price charts are positively sloped stay long.

There is a long way to go before we see the type of inflation and hyperinflation that the massive printing of US dollars can cause. There is no economist within 1,000 miles of the White House who can predict how high markets can go. After that, you can use the Sperandeo 123 Trend Reversal pattern to trade these same markets short.

Part of the problem is that the msm report price changes, and not percent changes. If wheat has doubled in price, then a 10% pull back is going to be twice as large as it had been. So if you're using prices for position sizing, you might consider trimming the position so your equity does not get whipped around. Keep in mind that this is as much an emotional decision as a financial one for you to make.

A word about short selling: if you put up 5% of the notional value as margin, all you need is a 5% move down for your to double your money or earn a 100% RoR on your position. If the number was 8%, then the same will hold. There are articles out there that have suggested that you can only make 100% by being short. That is not true and you can earn several hundred % by being short wheat, for example, from $9.00 to $4.50.

Position sizes will dictate what impact these moves have on your overall equity. In high volatility markets, as well as the potential for inflation or hyperinflation, you don't need large positions in commodity trading to earn out-sized gains. That's my prediction.

By. Michael Martin




Download The Free Oilprice App Today

Back to homepage

Trending Discussions


Leave a comment

Leave a comment





Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News