• 4 minutes Why Trump will win the wall fight
  • 8 minutes Cuba Charges U.S. Moving Special Forces, Preparing Venezuelan Intervention
  • 12 minutes Maduro Asks OPEC For Help Against U.S. Sanctions
  • 16 minutes Washington Eyes Crackdown On OPEC
  • 3 hours is climate change a hoax? $2 Trillion/year worth of programs intended to be handed out by politicians and bureaucrats?
  • 12 hours Solar and Wind Will Not "Save" the Climate
  • 4 hours Ayn Rand Was Right
  • 8 hours Indian Oil Signs First Annual Deal For U.S. OilIndian Oil Signs First Annual Deal For U.S. Oil
  • 8 hours Some Good News on Climate Change Maybe
  • 7 hours Expected Breakdown: Israel-Central Europe Summit Canceled After Polish Pullout
  • 21 hours IT IS FINISHED. OPEC Victorious
  • 23 hours Amazon’s Exit Could Scare Off Tech Companies From New York
  • 1 day students walk out of school in protest of climate change
  • 15 hours Oil Prices Bookended for Rest of This Year? Maybe $50 to $80? (My old 'See Saw' theory redux)
Why The Oil Rally Isn’t Over Yet

Why The Oil Rally Isn’t Over Yet

OPEC+ output cuts and several…

Emerging ‘Quality’ Problem To Haunt Oil Markets

Emerging ‘Quality’ Problem To Haunt Oil Markets

The divergence between lighter and…

James Burgess

James Burgess

James Burgess studied Business Management at the University of Nottingham. He has worked in property development, chartered surveying, marketing, law, and accounts. He has also…

More Info

U.S. Oil Imports Fall to Zero Over Next 25 Years

The EIA projects that U.S. oil imports will shrink to essentially zero by 2037 due to prolific production of crude oil. By 2020, the EIA estimates that U.S. oil production could reach 9.6 million barrels per day, the highest rate of production since 1970. The rapid increase in output can be credited to tight oil production, which accounts for 81% of the growth. By 2019, tight oil will make up about half of U.S. oil production.

The EIA mapped out several scenarios using assumptions about how productive America’s oil patch will be. In the most optimistic case – the High Oil and Gas Resource case – the U.S. will no longer need to import oil by 2037. Oil production rises to 13.3 million bpd, and consumption declines enough that the U.S. wouldn’t need foreign oil to meet demand. In this scenario, U.S. oil production would continue to increase over the next two decades and plateau in the 2030s.

 Net Import Share of US Liquids Consumption

On the other hand, it is not inevitable for that scenario to play out. In the EIA’s Reference case as well as its pessimistic the Low Oil case, U.S. oil production peaks before the end of this decade and steadily declines thereafter.

Related Article: U.S. Shale Means Cheap Coal for British Economy

Still, it is important to note that these are merely projections, subject to much uncertainty. Many of the oil and gas wells produced from shale experience high initial decline rates, and their production rates are highly uncertain. On the other hand, technological progress could bring costs down, making more difficult-to-reach basins accessible. Another reason for uncertainty is that the future estimates are based on current law, and would dramatically change if the U.S. passes legislation to, say, restrict greenhouse gas emissions, or open up more territory to drilling. However, the EIA does believe there is more uncertainty on the upside than there is on the downside.

By James Burgess Of Oilprice.com



Join the discussion | Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment

Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News