• 1 day PDVSA Booted From Caribbean Terminal Over Unpaid Bills
  • 1 day Russia Warns Ukraine Against Recovering Oil Off The Coast Of Crimea
  • 2 days Syrian Rebels Relinquish Control Of Major Gas Field
  • 2 days Schlumberger Warns Of Moderating Investment In North America
  • 2 days Oil Prices Set For Weekly Loss As Profit Taking Trumps Mideast Tensions
  • 2 days Energy Regulators Look To Guard Grid From Cyberattacks
  • 2 days Mexico Says OPEC Has Not Approached It For Deal Extension
  • 2 days New Video Game Targets Oil Infrastructure
  • 2 days Shell Restarts Bonny Light Exports
  • 2 days Russia’s Rosneft To Take Majority In Kurdish Oil Pipeline
  • 2 days Iraq Struggles To Replace Damaged Kirkuk Equipment As Output Falls
  • 2 days British Utility Companies Brace For Major Reforms
  • 3 days Montenegro A ‘Sweet Spot’ Of Untapped Oil, Gas In The Adriatic
  • 3 days Rosneft CEO: Rising U.S. Shale A Downside Risk To Oil Prices
  • 3 days Brazil Could Invite More Bids For Unsold Pre-Salt Oil Blocks
  • 3 days OPEC/Non-OPEC Seek Consensus On Deal Before Nov Summit
  • 3 days London Stock Exchange Boss Defends Push To Win Aramco IPO
  • 3 days Rosneft Signs $400M Deal With Kurdistan
  • 3 days Kinder Morgan Warns About Trans Mountain Delays
  • 3 days India, China, U.S., Complain Of Venezuelan Crude Oil Quality Issues
  • 3 days Kurdish Kirkuk-Ceyhan Crude Oil Flows Plunge To 225,000 Bpd
  • 4 days Russia, Saudis Team Up To Boost Fracking Tech
  • 4 days Conflicting News Spurs Doubt On Aramco IPO
  • 4 days Exxon Starts Production At New Refinery In Texas
  • 4 days Iraq Asks BP To Redevelop Kirkuk Oil Fields
  • 5 days Oil Prices Rise After U.S. API Reports Strong Crude Inventory Draw
  • 5 days Oil Gains Spur Growth In Canada’s Oil Cities
  • 5 days China To Take 5% Of Rosneft’s Output In New Deal
  • 5 days UAE Oil Giant Seeks Partnership For Possible IPO
  • 5 days Planting Trees Could Cut Emissions As Much As Quitting Oil
  • 5 days VW Fails To Secure Critical Commodity For EVs
  • 5 days Enbridge Pipeline Expansion Finally Approved
  • 5 days Iraqi Forces Seize Control Of North Oil Co Fields In Kirkuk
  • 5 days OPEC Oil Deal Compliance Falls To 86%
  • 6 days U.S. Oil Production To Increase in November As Rig Count Falls
  • 6 days Gazprom Neft Unhappy With OPEC-Russia Production Cut Deal
  • 6 days Disputed Venezuelan Vote Could Lead To More Sanctions, Clashes
  • 6 days EU Urges U.S. Congress To Protect Iran Nuclear Deal
  • 6 days Oil Rig Explosion In Louisiana Leaves 7 Injured, 1 Still Missing
  • 6 days Aramco Says No Plans To Shelve IPO
James Burgess

James Burgess

James Burgess studied Business Management at the University of Nottingham. He has worked in property development, chartered surveying, marketing, law, and accounts. He has also…

More Info

U.S. Oil Imports Fall to Zero Over Next 25 Years

U.S. Oil Imports Fall to Zero Over Next 25 Years

The EIA projects that U.S. oil imports will shrink to essentially zero by 2037 due to prolific production of crude oil. By 2020, the EIA estimates that U.S. oil production could reach 9.6 million barrels per day, the highest rate of production since 1970. The rapid increase in output can be credited to tight oil production, which accounts for 81% of the growth. By 2019, tight oil will make up about half of U.S. oil production.

The EIA mapped out several scenarios using assumptions about how productive America’s oil patch will be. In the most optimistic case – the High Oil and Gas Resource case – the U.S. will no longer need to import oil by 2037. Oil production rises to 13.3 million bpd, and consumption declines enough that the U.S. wouldn’t need foreign oil to meet demand. In this scenario, U.S. oil production would continue to increase over the next two decades and plateau in the 2030s.

 Net Import Share of US Liquids Consumption

On the other hand, it is not inevitable for that scenario to play out. In the EIA’s Reference case as well as its pessimistic the Low Oil case, U.S. oil production peaks before the end of this decade and steadily declines thereafter.

Related Article: U.S. Shale Means Cheap Coal for British Economy

Still, it is important to note that these are merely projections, subject to much uncertainty. Many of the oil and gas wells produced from shale experience high initial decline rates, and their production rates are highly uncertain. On the other hand, technological progress could bring costs down, making more difficult-to-reach basins accessible. Another reason for uncertainty is that the future estimates are based on current law, and would dramatically change if the U.S. passes legislation to, say, restrict greenhouse gas emissions, or open up more territory to drilling. However, the EIA does believe there is more uncertainty on the upside than there is on the downside.

By James Burgess Of Oilprice.com



Join the discussion | Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment

Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News