Oil traders appear increasingly unsure…
Based on a number of…
The market expectations for electric vehicle makers are significantly overestimated, Igor Sechin, CEO of Russia’s oil giant Rosneft said on Friday, adding that the evaluation of Tesla is based on “extremely aggressive” sales expectations.
Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Sechin also criticized Tesla’s business model and capital spending.
“The unconditional truth remains in the fact that the hydrocarbon power industry has been and will be in demand,” Sechin said, as quoted by Bloomberg, adding that “The market’s assessment of the prospects of electric car producers, in our view, is significantly overestimated.”
“Until the electric transport industry becomes as user-friendly and attractive for consumers as the cars with internal combustion engines, the prospects for electric vehicles remain largely uncertain,” Rosneft’s CEO noted.
It’s still early to speak of a commercial success of the electric vehicle industry, Sechin said, quoted by Forbes Russia. Sales volumes are small, and they depend on incentives in various countries, the head of Russia’s biggest oil company said.
The only country that has seen a notable increase in EV sales is Norway, where incentives are around US$18,000-19,000, Forbes Russia quoted Sechin as saying.
At the beginning of April, Tesla became the most valuable U.S. car maker, overtaking General Motors to become the first automaker not based in Detroit to be America’s most valuable. Tesla also overtook Rosneft by market value for the first time on May 31, according to Bloomberg.
Although Tesla is not making profits, Tesla believers argue that the company market valuation is justified with the long-term expectations for growth. Skeptics, on the other hand, say that Ford, GM, and other carmakers will boost their EV offerings and directly compete with and overtake Tesla.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:
Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews.
What do people think this will lead to?
Yes, in 1930 batteries may have been too expensive, heavy, small capacity etc. When I grew up, battery driven model planes were SciFi - today you get a battery driven drone at any Walmart for less than 20 USD.
And as for costs? People look to Norway & Co. and say "see BEVs only sell with tax incentives!". The point is different: if a small tax advantage can tilt a market to 20% EVs - how long will it take for all markets world-wide to go fully electric if EVs enjoy a 7% annual decline in battery costs?
This will not go as fast as all the "organic hipsters" want it. But it will go mighty fast if you earn your money in the incumbent oil&gas / traditional car industry. The point is: there is no loyalty to electric cars. And no loyalty to fossil fuel cars. It comes down to what is cheaper. Today, fossil fuel cars are cheaper. But that's about to change. Big time.
Elon Musk said he started his electric car company to get the process of moving away from oil powered cars going, so the economy wouldn't collapse as the oil supply declined. In that, he has already succeeded.
And then, there is the first returning rocket in human history. For that, he will be remembered for hundreds of years, thousands by future rocket scientists.
The unattractive parts about EVs at present are the range, charging times, and price. As it is, charging at home is far more user-friendly than going to fuel stations to fill up and a new crop of vehicles is hitting the streets over the next 12-15 months with both bigger batteries to provide more range and faster charge capabilities that reduce the impact of the range limits. Additionally, prices are going down and will continue to do so as the technology matures.
Additionally, his comments are too myopically focused on the light-duty vehicle market. Electric buses and trucks continue to make great strides forward and present a much larger threat because fleet managers are far more likely to worry solely about TCO savings than the average consumers. Also, they use a lot more fuel, so each one replaced represents the oil usage of a couple dozen light-duty vehicles.
Although Tesla is not making money, that says it all. If it were GM or Ford they would be bankrupt. Get off taxpayers funding and face the real world."
GM & Ford were also bailed out by taxpayers; Tesla paid their debt off first though.
The Tesla business model is funded by taxpayers through subsidies. Such business models are not sustainable.
Fact is: nobody is forced to invest in Tesla. There is no government money in Tesla (the loan is paid back, and any subsidies go to the customers and other car makers have equal access to the same subsidies). So what is the problem? If people want to "lose" their money, let them invest it in Tesla! Just like people "lost" their money in Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Microsoft over the past 2 decades...
Investing in coal, oil and gas however has been a bit painful lately. And if we don't start taxing the heck out of renewables, they will kill fossil fuels very soon...