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Russian Fiscal Budget Shows 35% Decline For January

Official figures from the Russian Finance Ministry on Monday show a 35% decline in fiscal budget revenues in January, compared to the same period last year, reporting a ~$24-billion budget deficit for January.

The budget deficit reflects oil and gas revenue that has declined 46% year-on-year, according to The Associated Press.

Sanctions and an expensive war in Ukraine have both been responsible for the drain.

The budget breakdown comes just days after the Finance Ministry reported a 46% drop in oil and gas revenues in January, year-over-year, due to sanctions on Russian oil exports and discounted prices for Urals crude.

In January, Russian oil and gas revenues dropped to their lowest level since August 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Data also showed that the price of Urals–Russia’s flagship crude–was 42% lower on average than for the same time period in 2022. That discount to Brent crude continued to widen following the EU ban on Russian seaborne crude that went into effect on December 5th.

The Russian Finance Ministry showed Urals priced at $49.48 per barrel in January, compared to $85.64 per barrel a year ago. 

One stop-gap effort Moscow is considering is to tax oil companies based on Brent prices rather than urals, Kommersant reported on Friday.

BP has predicted a 25%-42% fall in Russian oil production by 2035, noting a potential 12-million bpd decrease in output due to the curtailment of major new projects and a high rate of reduction in existing operating assets.

This, despite data from Energy Intelligence showing that Russia crude and condensate production actually increased 2% in 2022, with oil production at 10.73 million b/d, above Russia's ministry for economic development forecast of 10.33 million b/d. 

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

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  • Mamdouh Salameh on February 06 2023 said:
    Even if it is true which I don’t believe for one second, you have to make an assessment over a period of 6-12 months.

    The same has been said through the entire 2022 about Russia’s revenues, exports and budget deficit and it proved to be a deliberate disinformation.

    And despite sanctions, bans and price caps. Russia’s achievements in 2022 were truly impressive. It had a current account surplus of $228 bn, a trade balance surplus of $290 bn, an average of 7.8 million barrels a day (mbd) of crude oil and petroleum products exports, an oil production exceeding 11.0 mbd and an economy in far better shape than the United States’ and the EU economies.

    I am convinced that 2023 will prove another impressive year for Russia based on the strong fundamentals of the global oil and gas market.

    Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
    International Oil Economist
    Global Energy Expert

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