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The past seven days have seen shipments of Russian crude drop by 25%, as the Kremlin announces plans for building new export outlets to balance out the impact of sanctions.
From April 8 to April 15, Russia has seen crude oil shipments decline by one-quarter, with Bloomberg data showing that only 30 Russian tankers carried under 22 million barrels of oil to ports on the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea and the Arctic Ocean.
Those reduced shipments cut an estimated $60 million out of Russia’ war chest for the week.
Despite the war, sanctions and trader “self-sanctioning”, Russia is expected to earn over $320 billion from energy exports in 2022, according to Bloomberg. Even in a time of war that has isolated Russia from the West, energy export revenues will be one-third higher than they were in 2021.
On Tuesday, Russia unveiled plans to construct new export facilities, along with oil storage facilities, to counteract the effect of sanctions, Reuters reports.
Without major oil storage capabilities, there is little room for Russia to maneuver, but Reuters cited Russian Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin as saying that “some companies have been engaged in such projects and have been implementing it”.
On Monday, Russian President Vladmir Putin stated publicly that Western sanctions against his country were failing.
China and India have continued to prop up Russian oil, and the European Union has not been able to agree on a ban on Russian oil and gas.
Russia’s April energy sales were expected to be around $9.6 billion above the Kremlin’s original target thanks to multi-year-high oil prices. That projection, however, came in prior to Bloomberg data showing the 25% weekly decline in Russian crude oil exports from April 8 to April 15.
Those projections also came before oil prices fell around 5% this week on downsized IMF economic growth forecasts and China’s COVID lockdowns that leave the demand picture in a state of uncertainty.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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Julianne Geiger is a veteran editor, writer and researcher for Oilprice.com, and a member of the Creative Professionals Networking Group.
Such an unsubstantiated claim doesn’t take into account of the fact that the overwhelming volumes of Russian crude oil exports to China of almost 2.0 million barrels a day (mbd) go via oil pipelines and not by ship.
Russia’s annualized oil revenue in 2022 is expected to hit $284.60 bn whilst Russian budget surplus is projected to reach $134 bn in 2022.
Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London