• 6 minutes Trump vs. MbS
  • 11 minutes Can the World Survive without Saudi Oil?
  • 15 minutes WTI @ $75.75, headed for $64 - 67
  • 3 hours Satellite Moons to Replace Streetlamps?!
  • 22 hours US top CEO's are spending their own money on the midterm elections
  • 37 mins EU to Splash Billions on Battery Factories
  • 35 mins U.S. Shale Oil Debt: Deep the Denial
  • 9 hours The Balkans Are Coming Apart at the Seams Again
  • 1 day OPEC Is Struggling To Deliver On Increased Output Pledge
  • 37 mins Owning stocks long-term low risk?
  • 9 hours The Dirt on Clean Electric Cars
  • 20 hours Uber IPO Proposals Value Company at $120 Billion
  • 10 hours 47 Oil & Gas Projects Expected to Start in SE Asia between 2018 & 2025
  • 22 hours A $2 Trillion Saudi Aramco IPO Keeps Getting Less Realistic
  • 1 day 10 Incredible Facts about U.S. LNG
  • 1 day U.N. About Climate Change: World Must Take 'Unprecedented' Steps To Avert Worst Effects
Elon Musk Plans First Commercial Flights To Mars

Elon Musk Plans First Commercial Flights To Mars

Despite the headwinds he faced…

U.S-Saudi Clash Could Spell Disaster For OPEC

U.S-Saudi Clash Could Spell Disaster For OPEC

The Khashoggi case could have…

Rising U.S. Shale Prompts Banks To Cut Oil Price Forecasts, Again

Permian

Some investment banks doubt that the recent stockpile drops will continue after the summer season ends, as growing U.S. output could reverse the inventory trend later this year, according to The Wall Street Journal survey of 15 banks that cut again—for a third month in a row—their oil price forecasts for this year and next.

The banks now expect Brent crude prices to average US$53 in 2017, slashing the forecast by US$2 from the June survey. WTI prices are seen averaging US$51 this year, a US$1.00 downward revision from the June survey, according to The Journal poll.

For 2018, the banks expect Brent prices to average US$55, down by US$2 from the previous poll. The WTI forecast was also cut by US$2 from the June survey, and the U.S. benchmark price is now expected to average US$53 next year.

The current forecasts for 2019 are not very high either, with U.S. shale seen as a key factor in long-term price projections. The banks polled by The Journal expect Brent prices to average below US$60—US$59.60 to be precise—in 2019, compared to a forecast for an average US$74 Brent price in the poll from July last year.

This week the EIA reported a modest draw in inventories, following strong draws in the previous weeks.

According to a report by Michael Wittner, chief oil analyst at Societe Generale, as quoted by The Journal:

“In the very near term, we are cautious about prices, especially in September and October, when the seasonality of crude and product demand turns bearish.”

Hamza Khan, head of commodity strategy at ING Bank, told The Journal that he expected oil prices in the mid-$40s “with considerable risk to the downside should there be an increase in non-OPEC production or a collapse in the OPEC” deal.

Related: How Will The EU Respond To Fresh US Sanctions On Russia?

At the beginning of this week, 33 economists and analysts surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll cut for a sixth consecutive month their oil price forecasts for 2017 and 2018, as the slower-than-expected rate of oil market rebalancing puts an increasing amount of pressure on OPEC’s resolve to stick with the cuts. Brent crude prices are seen averaging US$52.45 per barrel this year, down from the previous US$53.96 forecast, while WTI prices are expected to average US$50.08 in 2017, compared to US$51.92 in the June poll.

At 10:14am EDT on Friday, WTI was down 0.12 percent at US$48.97, while Brent was down 0.1 percent to US$51.96.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:


x

Join the discussion | Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment

Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News