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Renewable power generation is set to more than double its share in America’s electricity to 44 percent in 2050 from 21 percent now, as wind and solar installations are expected to surge, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Friday.
Power generation from fossil fuels, on the other hand, is expected to decline from 60 percent in 2021 to 44 percent in 2050, according to EIA’s estimates in the Reference case of its Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO2022), which assumes current laws and regulations.
The key drivers of the decline in fossil fuel power generation will be slower growth of natural gas-fired generation and the continued retirement of coal-fired power generators. By 2050, natural gas-fired generation is set to increase in absolute terms, but the share of natural gas in the U.S. power generation mix will fall from 37 percent in 2021 to 34 percent in 2050, the EIA says. The share of coal in power generation is forecast to slump to 10 percent in 2050 from 23 percent in 2021.
So, it will be solar and wind that will drive the growth of renewable power generation over the next three decades, as hydropower is not expected to change much through 2050, while geothermal and biomass would collectively remain less than 3 percent of total U.S. electricity generation.
Renewables are already accounting for most of the new power capacity coming online in the United States. This year, the U.S. is set to add 46.1 gigawatts (GW) of new utility-scale electric generating capacity to the power grid, the EIA said in January. Almost half—or 46 percent—of the planned 2022 capacity additions will be solar power, followed by natural gas at 21 percent and wind at 17 percent. Just over half—or 51 percent—of the 2022 wind capacity additions are expected to be located in Texas, the EIA said.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews.