OPEC’s Strategy Starting To Take Its Toll On Gulf States

This will likely not end well for any of the producers. The purpose of an economic "cartel" is to impose its oligopolic powers on a market to the cartel's price advantage. (Market share is only meaningful if it leads to greater profits). In this regard, it appears that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and its OPEC faction badly miscalculated the effect of abandonment of OPEC's de facto role as the supply-side market maker.
First, KSA miscalculated the magnitude of the price collapse - which is costing KSA $9-$15 billion a month in lost revenue (and $1-1.5 trillion dollars a year for the industry as a whole) - I have not seen any compelling evidence that the npv of this forgone income will ever be recouped by the Saudis or anyone else in either increased sales volumes or future pricing (and with every additional month the hole only gets deeper - at this run rate, IMF notes that KSA's foreign reserve would last only 5 years).
Second, the long-term cost of the increased uncertainty, speculation, volatility and dislocation of the oil markets may ultimately spur, not deter, a shift to alternative energy sources despite lower oil prices – business hates unpredictability (volatility). Moreover, meaningless group OPEC production targets also fosters a continued culture of OPEC members seeking only their individual interests (in a race to the bottom). Under these conditions, restoring a managed marketplace (via restoring individual OPEC quotes, negotiated deal with Russia, Mexico, Brazil, etc. or other non-OPEC producers) will be more difficult - even if the KSA faction of OPEC eventually wants to do so.
KSA & Co. were mistaken in believing that a 1-2 year (or more) period of low oil prices would safely eliminate its non-OPEC rivals (US shale, tar sands, etc.) and significantly extend the "Age of Oil". While long-term invetments have been curtailed (a plus for OPEC), for many of the long-term/capital intensive producers (tar sands, etc.) OPEC's timing was too late. True, rivals have been forced to cutback dramatically on spending and new production (and some producers many not survive), but the oil controlled by these rivals (or their restructured successors) will not disappear. As we have already started to see, the cost structure of these OPEC rivals may decrease significantly - not only through technological innovations ("necessity" being mother of innovation) and penny-pinching of oil field suppliers and workers, but also from a lowered cost basis of these restructured rivals – neither of which may have happened – or at least not as rapidly. As has been reported, this "Frankenstein" scenario, may mean that OPEC/KSA's actions create relatively low priced tight oil rivals (who can ramp up production in weeks or months with millions, not years or decades with billions) who will become the de facto price setters going forward (not an good prospect for profit maximizing producer/cartel). It is as if KSA thought the "strong medicine" of low prices would kill the tight/shale oil "disease," but instead is more akin to a misuse of antibiotics where the target organism is damaged, but lives and the surviving ones are hardier and more damaging to deal with.... KSA's path may also mean the diminution in the power, influence, (and wealth) of KSA itself - as it is no longer the effective head of a functioning cartel, but instead is just one more commodity producer (albeit a very large and low cost one) seeking to hawk its product where ever it can...
A far more interesting strategy would have been for KSA & Co to try to use some variation of Game Theory (coupled with a much more robust reporting/monitoring program among OPEC members and maybe even Non-OPEC members alike - Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Oman, etc.) to actively manage the growth of new oil in a way that would "balance" the supply/demand marketplace such that OPEC (and non-OPEC producers alike) could maximize profits in a stable controlled market environment. While there will always be a "free rider"/cheating element (and many political, sectarian, legal, anti-trust and other impediments), global technology exists today to monitor oil flow that wasn't available in the 1980s to spot/control cheating... And with the KSA faction's power to "dump" to enforce market discipline, even the US and European Majors might have been tacitly enlisted to make the "right" choice (from a Game Theory Prisoners' Dilemma standpoint) in terms production growth....