OPEC Misses Production Quota By 310,000 Bpd

A new survey from Argus showed on Friday that OPEC+ production fell to 38.29 million bpd last month—1.81 million barrels per day short of its reduced quota.

The 19 OPEC+ members subject to the quota produced 310,000 bpd fewer barrels in November when compared to the month prior. But that’s still 1.81 million barrels per day short of its quota for November. November’s quota was a reduction of 2 million barrels per day off October levels, although it was understood at the time that the group might not be able to reach even that reduced target.

Non-OPEC members of the OPEC+ group faired better than the traditional OPEC members, raising the combined output by 460,000 bpd—an eight-month high, according to Argus. Most of those increases came from Kazakstan, which saw a 330,000 bpd production increase, and Russia’s production, which saw an increase of 190,000 bpd after restarting Sakhalin 1.

OPEC’s crude production was down 770,000 bpd for November, a six-month low. The production declines were led by Saudi Arabia, which saw its output reduced by 440,000 bpd.

The biggest laggards among the broader OPEC+ group now, according to Argus, are Russia, producing 670,000 bpd under target; Nigeria, producing 530,000 bpd under target, Angola, producing 350,000 bpd under target, and Malaysia, producing 170,000 under target.

The members of the group that met or exceeded their production target are Oman, Kazakhstan, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, Algeria, and Gabon.

Overall, Non-OPEC members under produced by 92,000 bpd, while OPEC members part of the quotas under produced by 90,000 bpd.

Crude oil prices have fallen substantially this week, prompting some to forecast that the OPEC+ group could cut oil production to prop up crude prices. Brent crude was set to finish out the week more than $10 under this time last week—well below what most analysts suspect is OPEC’s price defense trigger. 

By Julianne Geiger

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