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OPEC Lowers Oil Demand Forecast While Production Rises

OPEC has lowered its oil demand forecast for 2020 again, according to the latest version of the Monthly Oil Market Report released on Monday.

OPEC now expects global oil demand to fall to 9.77 million barrels per day in 2020 to reach 89.99 million barrels per day this year, compared to over 90 million bpd projected for its November MOMR. 

OPEC’s projections for 2021 oil demand is 95.89 million bpd, down 410,000 from its projection of 96.3 million bpd that the group made in its November MOMR, and 96.8 million bpd that it made in its October MOMR.

Meanwhile, OPEC’s oil production increased in November, according to the latest MOMR, adding 707,000 bpd on average, mostly from Libya—not beholden to the production quotas--which accounted for 656,000 bpd of the increase.

Production increases were also seen from Iran (+39,000 bpd), the UAE (+75,000 bpd), and Venezuela (+25,000 bpd).

OPEC has agreed to lift production by 500,000 bpd next year and will reevaluation where the market is to determine the next month’s quota. OPEC will hold their next meeting on January 4.

Libya has voiced its plans to increase its oil production and has previously stated that it will not accept any production quota until such a point where it can reliably produce 1.7 million bpd—compared to its current 1.108 million bpd.

Iran, too, has promised to increase its oil production to 2.3 million bpd in 2021, up from 1.986 million bpd now.

OPEC estimated that overall, global liquids production in November increased by 1.62 million bpd over October, to average 92.53 million bpd.

Oil prices were trading up on Monday, with WTI trading up 0.94% at $47.01 at 5:00 p.m. ET, with Brent up 0.70% at $50.32—still holding above $50 per barrel, despite increased production and decreased oil demand prospects.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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  • George Doolittle on December 15 2020 said:
    As long as Global Air Travel remains deminimus it's hard to argue with these projections. Plus the USA is about to become even more fuel efficient than it is already with the roll out of the new Ford Hybrid Ford F150 and record sales of Teslas, the Chevy Bolt and soon the Mustang Mach E. I'm completely at a loss as to what the "Biden Plan" for dealing with a Global Pandemic that has now killed millions and is spiking to the worst levels by far even is and was a major reason why I did not support him for the Presidency of the United States.

    Germany is straight up in lockdown mode suddenly which is going to crush energy demand and indeed demand period for anything vis a vis Europe. Commodity prices look set for an epic fail going into 2021 to me anyways. Plus Wall Street has an epic bubble been blown in tech meaning the US Dollar is vastly undervalued at the moment.

    Long US Treasuries
    Strong buy

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