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Global energy demand will increase by 28 percent from now until 2045 due to rising economies and population, according to OPEC’s World Oil Outlook discussed at the ADIPEC energy forum in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday.
The rise in global energy demand will be “driven by global economic growth and population expansion, as well as the need to expand access to modern energy services for those billions who continue to go without,” OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said, commenting on the outlook with estimates through 2045.
Energy demand globally is set to grow from 275.4 million boepd in 2020 to 352 million boepd by 2045, according to OPEC’s estimate of primary energy demand expressed in barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Primary energy demand in non-OECD countries will account for more than 70 percent of global primary energy demand in the long term, with growth mainly attributable to increasing populations and growing economies in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.
In the OECD countries, energy demand is set to flatten in the long term.
“This underscores a further decoupling from economic growth due to structural changes and a policy push that continues to place increasing emphasis on energy efficiency and the deployment of low-carbon energy technologies,” OPEC said in the outlook.
After a partial recovery from the impact of the pandemic, energy demand in the OECD is set to peak in the medium term before declining by 2045 to a level similar to that seen in 2020, the cartel notes.
Renewables and natural gas are projected to contribute the most to future incremental energy demand, according to OPEC.
Renewables will be the fastest-growing energy source with its share in the global primary energy mix above 10 percent in 2045, up from just 2.5 percent in 2020. Gas will become the second-largest fuel in the energy mix in 2045, OPEC notes.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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Charles is a writer for Oilprice.com