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Goldman Sachs Sees Commodities Supercycle On The Horizon

Investment banker Goldman Sachs sees a commodities supercycle on the horizon triggered by China and a shift away from capital in the energy markets and energy investments.

The exodus from energy markets was brought on by panic in the banking sector, Goldman Sachs' head of commodities, Jeff Curie, said on Tuesday at the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit according to Reuters.

"As losses mounted, it spilled into commodities," Currie said, adding that it could take months to get capital back. "We will still get a deficit by June and it will drive oil prices higher."

"On copper, the forward outlook is extraordinarily positive. We'll be at the lowest observable inventories that have ever been recorded at 125,000 tonnes. We have peak supply occurring in 2024...Near term we put (the copper price) at $10,500 and longer term our price target is $15,000 a tonne."

Copper prices rose on Tuesday on signs of solid demand and a bit more calm in the banking sector. Three-month copper CMCU3 on the LME was trading at $8,833.50 a tonne as the banking panic subsided.

Federal regulators shut down Silicon Valley Bank when it was unable to meet withdrawal requests as panic ensued. They also shut down New York's Signature Bank, fueling the market panic even more. 

The SVB collapse likely means no more rate hikes, Goldman said previously. Higher rate hikes could curtail crude oil demand, so a pause in the hikes could lead to higher demand than what had been previously forecast.

Goldman Sachs has most recently estimated that the Brent crude oil benchmark will reach $94 per barrel in the coming months, with 2024's Brent prices reaching $97 per barrel.

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By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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