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Except For Permian, Texan Oil Production Falling Fast

The Texas RRC Oil and Gas Production Data is out. This data is always incomplete. But we can get some idea of what the trend is by comparing it with previous months. This is what I have done in the charts below. If the latest month’s data is below the previous month’s data then the trend is down. But if the latest month’s (incomplete) data is above the previous month’s (incomplete) data the trend is up.

All RRC data is through November 2015 but the EIA data is only through October. The oil data is in barrels per day.

(Click to enlarge)

The trend is definitely down. The scale makes it difficult to gauge the month to month change but I have the exact month to month change here in barrels per day. Of course this only gives you a general idea of what is happening. The final change could be either less or greater than the numbers indicate here. But the EIA data should be very close.

Jun. to Jul. 7,245
Jul. to Aug. -63,827
Aug. to Sep. 34,507
Sep. to Oct. -33,486
Oct. to Nov. -52,802

Jun. to Nov. -108,363


EIA Dec. to Oct. -121,000

(Click to enlarge)

Dr. Dean Fantazzini has developed an algorithm that gives a very close estimate of what the final data will look like. His data and the EIA data track each other pretty close. Related: Oil Sold for -$0.50 per Barrel. A Negative Price!

(Click to enlarge)

Crude only has had the lion’s share of the decline, the incomplete data is down 91,000 bpd since June.

(Click to enlarge)

Dr. Dean Fantazzini’s corrected data indicates that crude only will actually be down about what the incomplete data indicates.

Condensate shows a slightly more erratic decline, down 17,000 bpd since June. Related: Is This The Bottom? Balance In Oil Markets Closer Than Many Think

(Click to enlarge)

And Dean’s condensate chart disagrees slightly with what I would estimate. He has condensate up in October where the RRC incomplete data has it down.

(Click to enlarge)

The EIA has dramatically revised their estimate of Texas natural gas production since last month. I think they have it pretty close this time. The EIA data is only through October but the ups and downs pretty much agree with the ups and downs of the RRC incomplete data.

Dean’s expectations for Texas total gas production are slightly different from the EIA’s. It does show a big drop in November as the Texas RRC data indicates. Related: Does Buffett See A Bottom In Oil Prices

(Click to enlarge)

Texas gas well gas shows a drop in November though it was up in September and October.

(Click to enlarge)

Texas associated gas should show a considerable decline in November when the final data is in.

By Ron Patterson

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