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Equinor Sees Peak Oil Demand Around 2030

Peak oil demand could come around 2030 at 111 million bpd in the current market as road transport electrification and efficiency gains in all sectors offsets increasing petrochemical and aviation growth, Norway’s Equinor said in its Energy Perspectives report on Thursday.

That assumption is one of Equinor’s scenarios for energy transition, Reform, which suggests that oil demand will grow robustly through the early 2020s, level out in the second half of the decade, peak at 111 million bpd around 2030, and then fall to 105 million bpd by 2050.

Equinor—which dropped the name Statoil last month to reflect a “broad energy” company rather than being associated only with oil—is discussing two other scenarios in its Energy Perspectives—the Renewal scenario and the Rivalry scenario.

Renewal assumes global cooperation, fast energy transition, and the achieving the Paris Agreement’s target to limit global warming to well below 2°C. In Renewal, peak oil demand could come in the early 2020s, if faster battery technology development, continued policy pushes, and larger efficiency improvements occur soon. In that case, oil demand could be just below 60 million bpd in 2050, according to Equinor.

The company’s third scenario, Rivalry, assumes that geopolitical volatility, boom and bust cycles, destructive market rule, and lack of cooperation will lead to continued oil demand growth all the way through 2050, at 122 million bpd in 2050. In the Rivalry scenario, geopolitical conflict and other political events take priority over climate change.

Related: Goldman: OPEC Must Raise Production

“Unfortunately, we currently see too many signs of the Rivalry-scenario. If continuing, they will negatively impact necessary global collaborative efforts and economic growth which are keys to drive the world in a sustainable direction,” Equinor’s Chief Economist Eirik Wærness said.

Yet, in all three scenarios, large investments in new oil discoveries will still be needed—although significantly less in the Renewal scenario—to offset the decline from existing fields, said Equinor.

“The transition to a more sustainable energy system is too slow. A sustainable development path, consistent with the 2-degree target, does not allow for further delays in policy, industry and consumer action to reduce emissions,” the company said.


By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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  • Energy^2 on June 12 2018 said:
    Even without growth, repairing the vast energy system, humans have built and using a century and a half ago and we call civilisation, is no less energy-intensive process than when the system was built anew.

    Demand peak is another entirely false assumption, unless demand is destroyed by force.

    The diagram below depicts how Repairs required for an energy-producing system are so substantial, even classic Hubert curve will look different when they are added to it:

  • citymoments on June 08 2018 said:
    With all due respects to the author, I just like to remind her of a few facts: 1. The power to lift a 747 aircraft to air born is equal to the power used to lift the first man made satellite to earth orbit. Without aviation industry, modern jets flying, most tourism economies will be dead and buried. 2. the most successful EV cars maker super star, Tesla, since the time it started make EV cars 10 years ago, never made a dollar but lost billions of dollar; moreover, the California government subsidies $7000 for a every EV CAR sold. 3. EV car requires four times copper than gasoline cars, copper is precious metal, where is the copper we could mine for making 1 billion EV Cars? 5. In a truly productive economy, we all have to remind ourselves of one important basic economic principle:what is technologically possible is not equal to what is economically viable. Otherwise, we shall all start space and moon landing travel tomorrow.

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