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Engine Efficiency Seen Leading To U.S. Gasoline Demand Peak In 2018

Gasoline demand in the U.S. is expected to peak next year due to continuous engine efficiency gains, Reuters reports, quoting analysts at energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

Demand for gasoline in the U.S. – the market which makes up one-tenth of the global oil consumption – is seen rising to some 9.45 million bpd this year and stay basically unchanged next year, before heading down to 9.28 million bpd in 2019, WoodMac says.

We expect gasoline engine efficiency to continue to improve through better deployment of batteries in hybrid vehicles,” Reuters quoted WoodMac analyst Alan Gelder as saying.

As far as global demand for gasoline is concerned, the energy consultancy expects its peak in 2021, even though the vehicle fleet will continue to expand, Reuters said. Global demand for gasoline is seen at its peak at 25.89 million in 2021, when it would account for around one-quarter of global oil demand.

The continuous rise in the electric and hybrid vehicle markets, coupled with stricter fuel emission regulation standards in the U.S. and Europe, will play a role in shifting consumption away from gasoline. In addition, the price of oil – expected to recover in coming years – is also seen as a factor for cutback in demand growth, the analyst noted.

Related: The EV Myth – Electric Car Threat To Oil Is Wildly Overstated

But while gasoline consumption in the U.S. and Europe is seen declining, demand in Asia will be strong as most of the rise in the vehicle fleet will be there. WoodMac sees the global gasoline car fleet rising by over 10 percent through 2025 to more than 1 billion vehicles, Reuters says.

Regarding peak oil demand, the head of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol said earlier this year that crude oil demand won’t peak anytime soon, adding that growth will be spurred by emerging economies.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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  • JHM on March 03 2017 said:
    For a little more context, US consumption of distillates peaked at 4.20 mbpd in 2007. Last year it declined to 3.88 mbpd, down from 4.00 mbpd in 2015.

    Jet fuel peaked in 2000 at 1.73 mbpd and is now at 1.61 mbpd.

    Gasoline is next.

    Nice to see recognition that batteries are playing a key role. We need to be tracking GWh of auto battery production as a key metric for the electrification of the fleet.

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