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EIA Lowers U.S. Oil Production Forecast

The Energy Information Administration has lowered its forecast for crude oil production for this year and next, according to a new report.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) made several adjustments to its production forecasts in its Short Term Energy Outlook published on Tuesday. The EIA now sees U.S. crude oil production averaging 11.86 million bpd for the full year 2022—down from 11.91 million bpd forecast in July’s STEO.

For the full year 2023, the EIA has adjusted its production forecast to an average of 12.70 million bpd, down from the forecast it made last month for 2023 of 12.77 million bpd. If realized, it would set a record for the most crude oil produced in the United States in a year, breaking the previous record set in 2019 of 12.3 million bpd, according to the EIA.

For this quarter, the EIA now sees U.S. production averaging 12.01 million bpd, compared to July’s third-quarter estimate of 12.08 million bpd. For the fourth quarter of this year, the EIA now sees production averaging 12.28 million bpd, compared to the July STEO’s forecast of 12.34 million bpd.

The agency’s Short Term Energy Outlook has been “subject to heightened uncertainty” for years—first from Covid lockdowns, and now from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting sanctions, and “the production decisions of OPEC+, the rate at which U.S. oil and natural gas production rises, and other contributing factors. Less robust economic activity in our forecast could result in lower-than-forecast energy consumption.”

The EIA also adjusted its forecast for WTI prices. The agency revised its WTI price outlook for Q3 to $98.48, compared to last month’s estimate for Q3 of $98.77 per barrel. Q4’s WTI price forecast is the same as last month’s, at $92.30.

The EIA now sees WTI averaging $89.13 next year, compared to their forecast made last month of $89.75 per barrel.

The EIA sees gasoline prices averaging $3.63 per gallon in the third quarter, and $3.52 in the fourth quarter.


By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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  • Larry Wilson on August 09 2022 said:
    It plays into the hands of Republican politicians for US oil producers to voluntarily hold back on production in order to keep gasoline prices high, and inflation with it. Then, of course, blame it all on Biden.

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