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China’s Gas Consumption Growth Potential “Stunning”

China’s natural gas consumption is growing faster than any other country in the Asia-Pacific (APAC), a Russian gas CEO said on Friday, according to TASS.

Gazprom’s CEO Alexey Miller made that statement at the 24th annual general meeting of the International Business Congress.

According to Miller, China’s energy market is the most dynamic in terms of growth. “Every year it simply stuns us with the growth rate of consumption and 2021 is no exception.”

Miller added that in the first half of this year, China’s natural gas consumption increased by more than 15%--and imports increased by more than 23%. “This means that by the end of 2021, the forecast estimates of consumption in China will amount to 360 billion cubic meters and the volume of imports will be 160 cubic meters.”

Miller sees China’s natural gas imports climbing to 300 billion cubic meters per year by 2035, with gas consumption in Asia-Pacific as a whole growing by 1.5 trillion cubic meters by 2040—60% of which will be imported.

China’s state-owned PipeChina sees China’s gas consumption increasing to 526 billion cubic meters by 2030, then slowing to 650 billion cubic meters by 2035—at which point it will peak. By 2050, PipeChina sees natural gas consumption in China slacking off to 550 billion cubic meters.

Those forecasts have been adjusted downward to account for China’s promise to meet carbon neutrality by 2060; previous forecasts saw China’s natural gas consumption reaching 700 billion cubic meters by 2050.

Natural gas demand for power generation is expected to account for most of the future natural gas consumption growth.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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  • Mamdouh Salameh on September 18 2021 said:
    That is what one would expect from an economy growing this year at 8.44% faster than any major economy in the world. China expects its economy to double in 2035 from the current $26.66 trillion based on purchasing power parity (PPP) to $53.32 trillion.

    With such a spectacular growth, neither oil demand nor gas demand will peak any time soon if ever. This means by the end of 2021 China’s gas consumption is projected to hit 360 billion cubic meters (bcm) with gas imports rising to 160 bcm. China’s natural gas imports are projected to climb to 300 bcm per year by 2035 almost doubling from the 2021 level in line with a doubling of the Chinese economy.

    China’s crude oil imports this year are also expected to average 12 million barrels a day (mbd) with consumption rising to an estimated 15.75 mbd.

    Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
    International Oil Economist
    Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London

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