• 4 minutes Pompeo: Aramco Attacks Are An "Act Of War" By Iran
  • 7 minutes Who Really Benefits From The "Iran Attacked Saudi Arabia" Narrative?
  • 11 minutes Trump Will Win In 2020
  • 15 minutes Experts review Saudi damage photos. Say Said is need to do a lot of explaining.
  • 23 mins Ethanol is the SAVIOR of the Oil Industry, Convenience Store Industry, Automotive Supply Chain Industry and Much More!
  • 16 hours Saudi State-of-Art Defense System looking the wrong way. MBS must fire Defense Minister. Oh, MBS is Defense Minister. Forget about it.
  • 10 hours Let's shut down dissent like The Conversation in Australia
  • 6 hours One of the fire satellite pictures showed what look like the fire hit outside the main oil complex. Like it hit storage or pipeline facility. Not big deal.
  • 2 hours Instagram Now Banning Photos Of People At Gun Ranges, Claiming They Promote "Violence"
  • 3 hours Ethanol, the Perfect Home Remedy for A Saudi Oil Fever
  • 1 day Saudis Buying Oil From Iraq
  • 6 hours Trump Accidentally Discusses Technology Used In The Border Wall
  • 16 hours Hong Kong protesters appeal to Trump for support.
  • 4 hours Famous Manufacturer of Anti-Ethanol Additives Proves Ethanol's Safety and Benefits
  • 9 hours Collateral Damage: Saudi Disruption Leaves Canada's Biggest Refinery Vulnerable
  • 1 day Donald Trump Proposes Harnessing Liberal Tears To Provide Clean Energy
  • 1 day Saudis Confirm a Cruise Missile from Iranian Origin
Alt Text

Is A Full-Blown War In The Persian Gulf Inevitable?

Following Saturday’s crippling attacks on…

Alt Text

Report: Iranian Tanker Offloads Oil At Syrian Port

The now notorious Iranian oil…

James Hamilton

James Hamilton

James is the Editor of Econbrowser – a popular economics blog that Analyses current economic conditions and policy.

More Info

Premium Content

How are the Sanctions Against Iran Progressing?

The boycott of Iran has been more successful than I had anticipated, with Iranian oil production and exports down significantly from a year ago.

And even stronger additional sanctions may soon be agreed upon. The measures appear to be having a significant effect on the Iranian economy, with the IMF reporting an inflation rate of 20-25% and some observers claiming the true figure could be as high as 70%. There are some signs of growing political opposition to the regime.

The goal of the sanctions is to try to pressure Iran to abandon its nuclear enrichment program. There was at least one indicator last week of some progress toward that goal, as statements from Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast seemed to signal a modest move forward in negotiations.


Alternative estimates of Iranian oil production. Source: Early Warning.

Related Article: Smash the Rally in Oil

Of course, lower oil production from Iran has not been without cost for the oil-consuming countries. The combined effects of the loss in Iranian production and modest gains elsewhere have left total world oil production essentially flat since the start of the year.

Alternate Estimate of World Oil Production
Alternative estimates of world oil production. Source: Early Warning.

And where will this all end? Based on prices of Intrade contracts, bettors see a 12% chance of a U.S. and/or Israeli air strike against Iran before December 31, a 39% chance before June 30, and a 51% chance before December 31 of 2013.

Price in Cents of Promise to Recieve
Price in cents of promise to receive $1.00 in event of air strike before December 31, 2013. Source: Intrade.

Related Article: Is a Larger Middle East War Inevitable?

Those same Intrade markets, by the way, put a 40% probability on Mitt Romney winning the presidential election.

By. James Hamilton

Source: Econbrowser




Download The Free Oilprice App Today

Back to homepage



Leave a comment

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News
Download on the App Store Get it on Google Play