• 4 minutes Oil Price Editorial: Beware Of Saudi Oil Tanker Sabotage Stories
  • 6 minutes UAE says four vessels subjected to 'sabotage' near Fujairah port
  • 13 minutes Mueller Report Brings Into Focus Obama's Attempted Coup Against Trump
  • 15 minutes Magic of Shale: EXPORTS!! Crude Exporters Navigate Gulf Coast Terminal Constraints
  • 1 min Trump bogged down in Mideast quagmire. US spent $Trillions, lost Thousands of lives, and lost goodwill. FOR WHAT? US interests ? WHAT INTEREST ? . . . . China greatest threat next 50 years.
  • 14 hours Why is Strait of Hormuz the World's Most Important Oil Artery
  • 3 hours Solar Cheaper than Coal
  • 3 hours CLIMATE PANIC! ELEVENTY!!! "250,000 people die a year due to the climate crisis"
  • 5 hours Rural and Conservative: Polish Towns Go 'LGBT free' Ahead Of Bitter European Election Campaign
  • 13 hours California's Oil Industry Collapses Despite Shale Boom
  • 6 hours Global Warming Making The Rich Richer
  • 9 hours Misunderstanding between USA and Iran the cause of current stand off, I call BS
  • 17 hours Knock-Knock: Aircraft Carrier Seen As Barometer Of Tensions With Iran
  • 17 hours Wonders of Shale- Gas,bringing investments and jobs to the US
  • 11 hours North Dakota oil output totals 1.39 million b/d in March, up 4% on month: state
  • 17 hours "We cannot be relying on fossil fuels to burn as an energy source at all in our country" - Canadian NDP Political Leader
  • 9 hours Compensation For A Trade War: Argentina’s Financial Crisis Creates An Opportunity For China
  • 4 hours Crude oil?
Alt Text

LNG Shippers Gear Up For Hurricane Season

Hurricane season could disrupt the…

Alt Text

Turkey Steps Up Fight For Gas in Eastern Mediterranean

Turkey exploration drilling for natural…

FX Empire

FX Empire

More Info

Trending Discussions

Natural Gas Analysis for the Week of August 15, 2011

October natural gas futures bucked the trend of most commodity markets last week by posting a strong 2.75% gain to finish at 4.071.

Technically the market posted a weekly closing price reversal bottom. A follow-through rally through 4.159 will be needed to confirm the bottom at 3.876. Based on the short-term range of 4.600 to 3.876, the first upside target is a retracement zone at 4.238 to 4.323. Downtrending Gann angles at 4.2100 and 4.2800 could also prove to be strong resistance.

The main trend is down on the weekly chart. A trade through 4.600 will turn the main trend back up, however without a support base; this rally is likely to fizzle. Despite the rally, it doesn’t look as if it was fueled by strong buying, but rather short-covering.

Natural gas price movements

Supply and demand played a role in last week’s rally. A smaller-than-expected increase in weekly natural gas storage added a boost. This ended weeks of larger-than-expected increases which were largely responsible for the selling pressure that took the market to its lowest level for the year.

Besides technically oversold conditions, the only key driving force left to consider is the weather. The absence of the heat that lingered over the Midwest and the East in July has dissipated, taking away one of the possible forces that could drive price higher. The National Hurricane Center is currently tracking four storms in the Atlantic Ocean that could develop into hurricanes. At this time, prices seem unaffected as they are not even close to natural gas production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.

Short-covering due to oversold conditions may provide some support this week; however, gains are likely to be limited as production continues to remain at a high level.

Factors Affecting Natural Gas This Week:

• Supply and Demand. Expectations are that production will remain high, leading to increased supply and lower prices. Traders should always watch for a possible surprise such as a lower-than-expected increase. This would likely trigger a short-covering rally.

• Weather. Although excessive heat seems to be out of the equation, traders should continue to monitor tropical storms in the Atlantic to see if they have any chance of reaching production areas in the Gulf of Mexico. Although only about 7% of U.S. production takes place in this region, short traders tend to overreact to the upside when they hear hurricane news.

By. FX Empire

FXEmpire.com is the Forex flagship site of the FX Empire Network. The FX Empire Network provides readers with the most expert and most timely technical analyses, fundamental analyses and news-pieces; this in order to empower them to make for themselves the best possible financial decisions. The FX Empire Network’s other flagship sites include: StocksEmpire.com and CommoditiesEmpire.com.




Download The Free Oilprice App Today

Back to homepage

Trending Discussions


Leave a comment

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News