The European benchmark natural gas price surged on Thursday morning to hit a new record-high for a second consecutive day, trading at the equivalent of $360 per barrel oil, as concerns over the disruption of Russian gas supply mount.
The gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, the benchmark gas price for Europe, jumped early on Thursday in Amsterdam to trade at $221 (199.99 euro) per MWh, which was a new all-time high. This beat Wednesday’s record of $215 (194 euro) per megawatt-hour.
The new record from Thursday morning means that natural gas was trading at what was around $360 per barrel of oil equivalent, Javier Blas, energy and commodities columnist at Bloomberg, noted.
“Another fierce price jump struck the European gas market yesterday. On the leading European TTF gas hub, the front month contract has now jumped 60% over the course of a week, as the market tries to digest the consequences of the Nord Stream 2 failure and the possibility of no Russian gas to Europe during the coming years,” analysts at Energi Danmark wrote in a morning note on Thursday, forecasting the uptrend to continue today.
In afternoon trade on Thursday, the TTF gas price dropped from the record in the morning, but prices are still much higher than last week.
“The market is very volatile as traders are anticipating political decisions and disruptions,” a gas trader told Reuters.
The market is increasingly apprehensive about a potential disruption to natural gas supply—be it additional sanctions targeting Russia’s energy, a possible Russian retaliation to sanctions by halting pipeline supply, or a direct hit on a pipeline carrying gas from Russia via Ukraine.
“Not to mention the consequences of a possible further tightening of sanctions, the war is already causing damage to Ukraine gas facilities,” analysts at Engie’s EnergyScan analytical service said on Thursday.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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To this could be added rising shortages in the global oil market and equally rising demand with a cut-throat competition between the Asia-Pacific region and the EU for whatever available supplies.
Russia provides the EU with more than 40% of its needs so the EU will be the biggest loser in either case sinking deeply into more ferocious and more damaging energy crisis. This could reduce its economic growth to zero.
Moreover, the entire LNG exports of the United States, Qatar, Australia and Norway could hardly replace Russian piped gas supplies to the EU amounting to 200 billion cubic metres (bcm) and 15-16 million tons of LNG. The EU’s LNG import infrastructure is very limited. Furthermore, Russian piped gas is far cheaper than LNG. Russia can still sell its gas and oil exports to China.
Furthermore, Nord Stream 2 isn’t dead. It will be resurrected once the Ukraine crisis is over. It will eventually receive certification because it is extremely vital for the future energy security of both the EU and particularly Germany.
Only a peaceful settlement of the Ukraine crisis could now calm down the highly volatile market and prices.
Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London