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Don't Get Sucked Into Natural Gas

When natural gas was trading at $6 at the beginning of the year, I warned readers to stay away because it would take years to discount the discovery of a new 100 year supply through the new "fracting" technology.

Gas then launched into an agonizing, three month plunge, where it lost one third of its value.

The ETF (UNG) did even worse, spiraling down 38%, as the widening contango decimated investors. Since April, battered CH4 has rallied 25% off its $3.80 low.

Talking heads on TV have explained this is because of the coming summer power demand from conditioners, the onset of the hurricane seasons, the imminent passage of a gas subsidies in congress, or because of crude supply shortages caused by the deep water drilling ban.

Don't believe a single word of this.

The reality is that hedge funds that had been running big, successful shorts in natural gas had a terrible month in May.

Margin calls from other losing positions, especially shorts in the Treasury bond market, have forced them to free up cash by buying back natural gas.

The supply overhang and storage shortage for this diminutive molecule is still as bad as it ever was.

If we can make it back up to the last cycle high of $6.20, I think natural gas would be a screaming short again.

By. Mad Hedge Fund Trader


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  • Anonymous on June 15 2010 said:
    If, as some believe, we're about to go leg down on a double double dip recession / depression it might be a long time before it sees the high side of $5.

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