• 2 hours API Reports Seventh Large Crude Draw In Seven Weeks
  • 2 hours Maduro’s Advisors Recommend Selling Petro At Steep 60% Discount
  • 3 hours EIA: Shale Oil Output To Rise By 1.8 Million Bpd Through Q1 2019
  • 4 hours IEA: Don’t Expect Much Oil From Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Before 2030
  • 5 hours Minister Says Norway Must Prepare For Arctic Oil Race With Russia
  • 6 hours Eight Years Late—UK Hinkley Point C To Be In Service By 2025
  • 7 hours Sunk Iranian Oil Tanker Leave Behind Two Slicks
  • 8 hours Saudi Arabia Shuns UBS, BofA As Aramco IPO Coordinators
  • 15 hours WCS-WTI Spread Narrows As Exports-By-Rail Pick Up
  • 20 hours Norway Grants Record 75 New Offshore Exploration Leases
  • 24 hours China’s Growing Appetite For Renewables
  • 1 day Chevron To Resume Drilling In Kurdistan
  • 1 day India Boosts Oil, Gas Resource Estimate Ahead Of Bidding Round
  • 1 day India’s Reliance Boosts Export Refinery Capacity By 30%
  • 1 day Nigeria Among Worst Performers In Electricity Supply
  • 2 days ELN Attacks Another Colombian Pipeline As Ceasefire Ceases
  • 2 days Shell Buys 43.8% Stake In Silicon Ranch Solar
  • 2 days Saudis To Award Nuclear Power Contracts In December
  • 2 days Shell Approves Its First North Sea Oil Project In Six Years
  • 2 days China Unlikely To Maintain Record Oil Product Exports
  • 2 days Australia Solar Power Additions Hit Record In 2017
  • 2 days Morocco Prepares $4.6B Gas Project Tender
  • 2 days Iranian Oil Tanker Sinks After Second Explosion
  • 5 days Russia To Discuss Possible Exit From OPEC Deal
  • 5 days Iranian Oil Tanker Drifts Into Japanese Waters As Fires Rage On
  • 5 days Kenya Cuts Share Of Oil Revenues To Local Communities
  • 5 days IEA: $65-70 Oil Could Cause Surge In U.S. Shale Production
  • 5 days Russia’s Lukoil May Sell 20% In Oil Trader Litasco
  • 5 days Falling Chinese Oil Imports Weigh On Prices
  • 5 days Shell Considers Buying Dutch Green Energy Supplier
  • 6 days Wind And Solar Prices Continue To Fall
  • 6 days Residents Flee After Nigeria Gas Company Pipeline Explodes
  • 6 days Venezuela To Pre-Mine Petro For Release In 6-Weeks
  • 6 days Trump Says U.S. “Could Conceivably” Rejoin Paris Climate Accord
  • 6 days Saudis Shortlist New York, London, Hong Kong For Aramco IPO
  • 6 days Rigid EU Rules Makes ICE Move 245 Oil Futures Contracts To U.S.
  • 6 days Norway Reports Record Gas Sales To Europe In 2017
  • 7 days Trump’s Plan Makes 65 Billion BOE Available For Drilling
  • 7 days PetroChina’s Biggest Refinery Doubles Russian Pipeline Oil Intake
  • 7 days NYC Sues Five Oil Majors For Contributing To Climate Change
Alt Text

Can We Afford Renewable Energy?

Renewable energy is all the…

Alt Text

Has Oil Become Overbought?

As oil prices continue their…

Alt Text

Is A “Geopolitical Recession” Looming?

Ian Bremmer of Eurasia Group…

The Numbers Behind The Current Oil Rally

The Numbers Behind The Current Oil Rally

Given it is such a colorful day in markets today, let’s do some painting by numbers to get a more complete picture of what is going down in energyland™ et al:

$130 billion: OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem el-Badri said global oil investments are being slashed by $130 billion this year, as projects are seeing spending cuts of 22.4 percent to $521 billion.

-10 percent: IMF forecasts that the Venezuelan economy will be the worst performing this year, dropping by a whopping 10 percent, while falling a further 6 percent in 2016. Venezuela also has the fastest inflation rate, at…………..159 percent this year (?!), increasing to 204 percent (??!!) next year. The biggest reason behind Venezuela’s deterioration? Oil accounts for 95 percent of its foreign exports, ergo lower oil prices mean revenues have dropped by 52 percent in the last year. Related: Has Oil Finally Bottomed?

(Click to enlarge)

-1.2 percent: German industrial production dropped considerably in August (although this is subject to hefty revisions). The UK saw a much more robust print of +1.0 percent.

+25.5 percent: As mortgage rates fell to a five-month low last week, mortgage applications increased by a whopping 25.5 percent versus the prior week. Related: Could The Syrian Conflict Irrevocably Change Global Geopolitics?

-1.2 million barrels: Yesterday’s API report yielded a surprise draw when a build of 1.7 million barrels was expected. Given we are in the throes of maintenance season, consensus was for inventories to build as more oil is stockpiled and less oil is refined. Our #ClipperData indicates the reason for the draw likely lies with low imports, as we saw a drop off in cargoes from Mexico and Brazil, while Hurricane Joaquin disrupted waterborne imports from the Caribbean.

(Click to enlarge)

API crude oil inventories (source: investing.com)

7: It’s been seven weeks since the direction of the API oil inventory number and EIA number has deviated. (It could be time to deviate again?).

0.1 percent: Japan decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.1 percent, but chose not to increase stimulus from the current annual asset purchases of ¥80 trillion.

$50 – WTI is swinging at the monkeybar of fifty dollardom today for the first time since July, as tentative signals of a tightening oil market are spurring on a break from range-bound trading in the mid-forties – where we spent all of September.

140,000: The monthly report from EIA, the Short Term Energy Outlook, estimates that U.S. oil production declined by 140,000 bpd from the prior month. Cue: oil rally. Related: VW Scandal Bad News For Diesel

$54: A combination of a slowdown in emerging markets, a supply glut, and slowing demand amid a shift towards natural gas and renewables means that international coal prices have dropped to their lowest level in eight years:

(Click to enlarge)

By Matt Smith

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:




Back to homepage


Leave a comment

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News