• 2 days PDVSA Booted From Caribbean Terminal Over Unpaid Bills
  • 2 days Russia Warns Ukraine Against Recovering Oil Off The Coast Of Crimea
  • 2 days Syrian Rebels Relinquish Control Of Major Gas Field
  • 2 days Schlumberger Warns Of Moderating Investment In North America
  • 2 days Oil Prices Set For Weekly Loss As Profit Taking Trumps Mideast Tensions
  • 2 days Energy Regulators Look To Guard Grid From Cyberattacks
  • 2 days Mexico Says OPEC Has Not Approached It For Deal Extension
  • 2 days New Video Game Targets Oil Infrastructure
  • 3 days Shell Restarts Bonny Light Exports
  • 3 days Russia’s Rosneft To Take Majority In Kurdish Oil Pipeline
  • 3 days Iraq Struggles To Replace Damaged Kirkuk Equipment As Output Falls
  • 3 days British Utility Companies Brace For Major Reforms
  • 3 days Montenegro A ‘Sweet Spot’ Of Untapped Oil, Gas In The Adriatic
  • 3 days Rosneft CEO: Rising U.S. Shale A Downside Risk To Oil Prices
  • 3 days Brazil Could Invite More Bids For Unsold Pre-Salt Oil Blocks
  • 3 days OPEC/Non-OPEC Seek Consensus On Deal Before Nov Summit
  • 3 days London Stock Exchange Boss Defends Push To Win Aramco IPO
  • 3 days Rosneft Signs $400M Deal With Kurdistan
  • 4 days Kinder Morgan Warns About Trans Mountain Delays
  • 4 days India, China, U.S., Complain Of Venezuelan Crude Oil Quality Issues
  • 4 days Kurdish Kirkuk-Ceyhan Crude Oil Flows Plunge To 225,000 Bpd
  • 4 days Russia, Saudis Team Up To Boost Fracking Tech
  • 4 days Conflicting News Spurs Doubt On Aramco IPO
  • 5 days Exxon Starts Production At New Refinery In Texas
  • 5 days Iraq Asks BP To Redevelop Kirkuk Oil Fields
  • 5 days Oil Prices Rise After U.S. API Reports Strong Crude Inventory Draw
  • 5 days Oil Gains Spur Growth In Canada’s Oil Cities
  • 5 days China To Take 5% Of Rosneft’s Output In New Deal
  • 5 days UAE Oil Giant Seeks Partnership For Possible IPO
  • 5 days Planting Trees Could Cut Emissions As Much As Quitting Oil
  • 5 days VW Fails To Secure Critical Commodity For EVs
  • 6 days Enbridge Pipeline Expansion Finally Approved
  • 6 days Iraqi Forces Seize Control Of North Oil Co Fields In Kirkuk
  • 6 days OPEC Oil Deal Compliance Falls To 86%
  • 6 days U.S. Oil Production To Increase in November As Rig Count Falls
  • 6 days Gazprom Neft Unhappy With OPEC-Russia Production Cut Deal
  • 6 days Disputed Venezuelan Vote Could Lead To More Sanctions, Clashes
  • 6 days EU Urges U.S. Congress To Protect Iran Nuclear Deal
  • 7 days Oil Rig Explosion In Louisiana Leaves 7 Injured, 1 Still Missing
  • 7 days Aramco Says No Plans To Shelve IPO
Alt Text

Why U.S. Crude Exports Are Booming

U.S. crude oil exports are…

Alt Text

A New Oil Crisis Is Developing In The Middle East

As Iraqi-Kurds prepare to fight…

Alt Text

Oil Prices Spike On Middle East Tensions

Oil prices jumped upwards on…

Matt Smith

Matt Smith

Taking a voyage across the world of energy with ClipperData’s Director of Commodity Research. Follow on Twitter @ClipperData, @mattvsmith01

More Info

Saudis Ponder Selling Stake In Aramco, Oil Keeps Falling

Saudis Ponder Selling Stake In Aramco, Oil Keeps Falling

This morning’s fanfare is not only for the first Nonfarm Friday of the year, but also in honor of David Bowie’s 69th birthday). And sure enough changes are underway in the market, as we approach the end of a most tumultuous week.

A sense of serenity returned to financial markets overnight (it’s all relative, folks), as circuit breakers were removed from China’s equity market, and it was allowed to roam freely. It initially sold off, before closing out with a near 2 percent gain. The crude complex laced up its rally boots overnight, but has loosened them again, looking to tread water once more.

It is the first Friday of the month, hence it is Nonfarm Payrolls – aka official U.S. unemployment data. Job creation last month came in at 292,000, much higher than the consensus of 200,000 – something that was alluded to by Wednesday’s blowout of a print from the ADP report. The unemployment rate remains at 5.0 percent, while the participation rate ticked just a smidge higher to 62.6 percent. All in all, a fairly encouraging report given the tempestuous nature of other releases this week.

Perhaps the most eyebrow-raising news for the crude complex today is the confirmation that Saudi Arabia is considering selling a stake in its state-owned company, Saudi Aramco. To put this in context, not only does Saudi Aramco produce ten percent of the world’s oil, it is estimated to hold 261 billion barrels in oil reserves. These reserves are more than ten times those held by Exxon Mobil….which has a market cap of $319 billion. Related: How Capital Inflows Can Affect Oil Service Activity In 2016

From one oil-producing behemoth to another, there is an excellent piece out on RBN Energy today about what to expect from U.S. crude exports in light of the recent lifting of the ban. The piece was written by ClipperData’s Nilofar Saidi, and is an absolute super-duper read (link is here).

On Wednesday we looked at how US Gulf coast crude imports are on the rise, despite the lifting of the U.S. crude oil export ban. This has been driven in recent months by a significant ramp up in Iraqi flows. The ascendance of Iraqi production amid Iranian sanctions in the last few years has meant that Iraq has surpassed Iran to become OPEC’s second-largest producer. Related: Crude Hits New Lows Despite Geopolitical Unrest

In terms of exports, they also continue to rise. While Iraqi exports from Basrah last month were expected to be a program total of 83 million barrels, they were in fact at 89 million, according to our ClipperData. The chart below shows the breakdown of exports by destination. While China and India accounted for approximately 40 percent of Iraqi exports last year – with a relatively even split at that – rising exports at the end of the year propelled the US into sixth place, behind South Korea (12 percent), Netherlands (5 percent) and Italy (5 percent).

Finally, a key theme in commodityland™ for 2015 was that of the thwacking of commodity currencies – from the lira to the loonie, from the real to the ruble. This theme is likely to be ongoing in 2016; those countries whose economies are inextricably linked to natural resources are set to see their currencies buffeted by commodity movements. With that in mind, I leave you with the below chart of the Norwegian Krone plotted versus black gold, Texas tea. Related: Is ISIS Trying To Seize Libyan Oil Assets?

By Matt Smith

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:




Back to homepage


Leave a comment

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News